Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Apr 1;815:152947. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.152947. Epub 2022 Jan 7.
Exploring the changes in wheat traits under future climate change and their contributions to yield changes is essential to improve the understanding of climate impact mechanisms and develop climate-resilient cultivars, which however has been seldom conducted. In this study, using a process-based crop model (APSIM-Wheat), meta-regression analyses, and machine learning approaches, we assessed the impacts of different warming levels on soil environments and wheat traits; investigated the impacts of future climate change on wheat traits, growth and development; and identified the favorable wheat traits for breeding under future climate change conditions. Meta-analyses showed that climate warming could significantly advance anthesis date by 3.50% and shorten the entire growth duration by 1.18%, although the duration from anthesis to maturity could be elongated by 7.72%. It could also increase grain yield slightly by 2.72% in the North China Plain, mainly due to the increase in biomass by 6.66%, grain weight by 3.86% and the elongating grain-filling period. However, high temperatures could significantly reduce aboveground biomass. The APSIM-Wheat model was validated based on three years' high-quality environment-controlled experimental data in the long-term warming and conservation tillage fields at Yucheng comprehensive experiment station in the North China Plain. The results showed that the mean yield would decrease under RCP4.5 for both tillage managements (conservational tillage: 0.55%, no-tillage: 6.88%), but increase conservational tillage yield (7.7%) under RCP8.5, relative to 1980-2010, owing to the interactive impacts of climate, CO and tillage on wheat traits. Soil moisture would play a more important role in biomass, yield, height, LAI, and grain number for conventional tillage than for no-tillage system, and in the future than in the historical period. Our findings gained insights into the impacts of climate change on wheat traits and yield under different tillage managements, which are essential to understand climate change impact mechanisms and develop climate-resilient cultivars.
探讨未来气候变化下小麦性状的变化及其对产量变化的贡献,对于提高对气候影响机制的认识和培育具有气候适应性的品种至关重要,但这方面的研究还很少。本研究利用基于过程的作物模型(APSIM-Wheat)、荟萃回归分析和机器学习方法,评估了不同升温水平对土壤环境和小麦性状的影响;研究了未来气候变化对小麦生长发育的影响;并确定了在未来气候变化条件下有利于培育的小麦性状。荟萃分析表明,气候变暖可使华北平原小麦的抽穗期提前 3.50%,整个生育期缩短 1.18%,但从抽穗到成熟的时间可能延长 7.72%。这也可使小麦产量略有增加 2.72%,主要是由于生物量增加 6.66%、粒重增加 3.86%和延长灌浆期。然而,高温会显著降低地上生物量。APSIM-Wheat 模型在华北平原禹城长期增温和保护性耕作试验站的三年高质量环境控制实验数据的基础上进行了验证。结果表明,在 RCP4.5 下,两种耕作方式(保护性耕作:0.55%,免耕:6.88%)下的平均产量都将下降,但在 RCP8.5 下保护性耕作的产量将增加(7.7%),与 1980-2010 年相比,这是由于气候、CO 和耕作对小麦性状的相互影响。与免耕系统相比,在传统耕作下,土壤水分对生物量、产量、株高、LAI 和粒数的影响更为重要,而在未来比在历史时期更为重要。本研究结果深入了解了不同耕作方式下气候变化对小麦性状和产量的影响,对于理解气候变化影响机制和培育具有气候适应性的品种至关重要。