National Research Institute for Rural Engineering, Water and Forests (INRGREF), Carthage University, Agronomy Laboratory (LR16INRAT05), Hedi Karray Street, 2049 Ariana, Tunisia.
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique de Tunisie (INRAT), Carthage University, Agronomy Laboratory (LR16INRAT05), Hedi Karray Street, 2049 Ariana, Tunisia.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Nov 20;692:1223-1233. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.307. Epub 2019 Jul 21.
Several circulation models are forecasting climate changes in the Mediterranean region. Accordingly, it is expected that water scarcity in the region will be higher with drastic shifts of hydrological and erosive watershed responses. In Tunisia, wheat yields have been variable over the years and are lower than the potential yields. In response, the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA), introduced into Tunisia in 1999 to help adaptation to climate change, has resulted in a substantial reduction in agricultural productivity. CA areas increased from 52 ha in 1999 to 14,000 ha in 2015. Using a modelling approach, the present paper evaluates the potential of CA to adapt wheat-based-systems to climate change in Tunisia. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to predict the effect of tillage (conventional tillage [CT] vs. zero-tillage [ZT] and soil residue retention [ZT-RR]) on wheat productivity and soil fertility. Two contrasting locations in Tunisia were studied; one semi-arid (Kef) and one sub-humid (Bizerte). Results showed that the sustainable production of durum wheat under climate change conditions in Tunisia is possible through the adoption of CA practices (ZT and ZT-RR) in both sub-humid and semi-arid areas. In fact, mulching (residue retention) is more effective than CT (under semi-arid and sub-humid conditions) in enhancing wheat yield (15%), water use efficiency (18% and 13%) and soil organic carbon accumulation (0.13 t ha year and 0.18 t ha year). It is also more effective for soil resilience - preventing water erosion (1.7 t ha year and 4.6 t ha year of soil loss). The present study allowed identification of 260,000 ha as priority areas for CA adoption; this represent one-third of the total cereal area in Tunisia. Appropriate evaluation of the benefits of CA on sustainable agricultural intensification would provide more arguments for effectively supporting CA adoption in Tunisia.
几种循环模型正在预测地中海地区的气候变化。因此，预计该地区的水资源短缺将更加严重，水文和侵蚀流域响应将发生剧烈变化。在突尼斯，小麦产量多年来一直不稳定，低于潜在产量。作为回应，1999 年引入突尼斯以帮助适应气候变化的保护性农业（CA）的采用导致农业生产力大幅下降。CA 面积从 1999 年的 52 公顷增加到 2015 年的 14000 公顷。本文通过建模方法评估了 CA 在突尼斯适应气候变化的潜力。使用农业生产系统模拟器（APSIM）模型预测耕作（常规耕作[CT]与免耕[ZT]和土壤残茬保留[ZT-RR]）对小麦生产力和土壤肥力的影响。研究了突尼斯的两个对比地点；一个是半干旱地区（Kef），另一个是半湿润地区（Bizerte）。结果表明，通过在半湿润和半干旱地区采用 CA 实践（ZT 和 ZT-RR），在突尼斯气候变化条件下可持续生产硬质小麦是可能的。事实上，在半干旱和半湿润条件下，与 CT 相比，覆盖（残茬保留）在提高小麦产量（15%）、水利用效率（18%和 13%）和土壤有机碳积累（0.13t ha 年和 0.18t ha 年）方面更有效。它在防止水蚀方面也更有效（每年 1.7t ha 和每年 4.6t ha 的土壤流失）。本研究确定了 26 万公顷为 CA 采用的优先地区；这占突尼斯总谷物面积的三分之一。对 CA 对可持续农业集约化的效益进行适当评估，将为有效支持突尼斯 CA 的采用提供更多论据。
