Gächter Martin, Huber Florian, Meier Martin
Liechtenstein Financial Market Authority, Liechtenstein.
University of Innsbruck, Austria.
Financ Res Lett. 2022 Jun;47:102638. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102638. Epub 2022 Jan 6.
While previous literature examines the effects of increasing COVID-19 incidences and fatality rates on economic activity, the impact of vaccination roll-outs on public health and the economy is not yet well understood. We examine the effect of a vaccination shock in the United States on various pandemic and economic indicators. By employing a BVAR model to overcome the short data sample, we show that an increase in vaccinations is not only associated with declining incidences, reproduction and fatality rates, but also increases mobility, which dampens the effect on public health indicators in the medium term. With respect to the economy, a vaccination shock is associated with lower unemployment, higher GDP growth and also reduces uncertainty in financial markets.
虽然以往的文献研究了新冠疫情发病率和死亡率上升对经济活动的影响，但疫苗接种推广对公共卫生和经济的影响尚未得到充分理解。我们研究了美国疫苗接种冲击对各种疫情和经济指标的影响。通过采用贝叶斯向量自回归（BVAR）模型来克服数据样本较短的问题，我们发现疫苗接种增加不仅与发病率、繁殖数和死亡率下降有关，还能提高流动性，这在中期会减弱对公共卫生指标的影响。在经济方面，疫苗接种冲击与失业率降低、GDP增长加快有关，还能减少金融市场的不确定性。
