新冠疫情危机、选民的驱动因素以及金融市场对美国总统大选和全球经济的影响。
COVID-19 crisis, voters' drivers, and financial markets consequences on US presidential election and global economy.
作者信息
Pop Ionuț Daniel
机构信息
Department of Money and Banking, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 5-7 Moxa Street, 010961, Bucharest, Romania.
出版信息
Financ Res Lett. 2022 Jan;44:102113. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102113. Epub 2021 May 9.
The paper examines the United States 2020 presidential election drivers and effects, under the uncertainty caused by COVID-19. By considering news-based, financial markets, and coronavirus specific inputs in panel data framework, the results reveal that COVID-19 affects candidates' chances. Biden's electorate reacts positive to news regarding unemployment or healthcare, stress level on financial markets or Country Sentiment Index. Trump's opportunities increase with coronavirus indicators or news about populism. However, President-elect Biden must provide solutions for national economy issues like unemployment, budget deficit or healthcare inequalities. Simultaneously, having extensive prerogatives on trade and investment partnerships, influences mitigation of COVID-19 global effects.
本文考察了在新冠疫情造成的不确定性背景下，2020年美国大选的驱动因素及影响。通过在面板数据框架中考虑基于新闻、金融市场和特定新冠病毒的输入因素，结果显示新冠疫情影响候选人的胜算。拜登的选民对有关失业或医疗保健的新闻、金融市场的压力水平或国家情绪指数做出积极反应。特朗普的机会随着新冠病毒指标或有关民粹主义的新闻而增加。然而，当选总统拜登必须为失业、预算赤字或医疗保健不平等之类的国民经济问题提供解决方案。同时，在贸易和投资伙伴关系方面拥有广泛特权，有助于减轻新冠疫情的全球影响。
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