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新冠疫情与中国经济的关联:金融危机还是健康危机?

The association of COVID-19 nexus on China's economy: A financial crisis or a health crisis?

机构信息

School of Economic and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.

School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2022 Sep 7;17(9):e0272024. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272024. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

This paper analyses the interaction between the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), unemployment rate, stock market, consumer confidence index (CCI), and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in China within a time-frequency framework. We compare the changes in economic indicators during the global financial crisis (GFC) and study the different impacts of the two events on China's economy. An unprecedented impact of COVID-19 shocks on the unemployment rate, CCI, EPU index, and stock market volatility over the low frequency bands is uncovered by applying the coherence wavelet method to China monthly data. The COVID-19 effect on the stock market volatility and the EPU index is substantially higher than on the unemployment rate and the CCI. On the contrary, the GFC's impact on the unemployment rate is much greater than that on the EPU index and CCI. Additionally, the impact of the GFC on the economy is more cyclical in the long-term, while the COVID-19 pandemic is a short-term shock with a relatively short oscillation cycle. This study concludes that the economic impact of COVID-19 will not spread into a financial crisis for China and believe that the COVID-19 pandemic is more of a health event than an economic crisis for Chinese economy.

摘要

本文在时频框架内分析了新型冠状病毒大流行(COVID-19)、失业率、股票市场、消费者信心指数(CCI)和经济政策不确定性(EPU)指数在中国的相互作用。我们比较了全球金融危机(GFC)期间经济指标的变化,并研究了这两个事件对中国经济的不同影响。通过对中国月度数据应用相干波方法,揭示了 COVID-19 冲击对失业率、CCI、EPU 指数和股票市场波动低频带的前所未有的影响。COVID-19 对股票市场波动和 EPU 指数的影响明显高于对失业率和 CCI 的影响。相反,GFC 对失业率的影响远远大于对 EPU 指数和 CCI 的影响。此外,GFC 对经济的影响在长期内更具周期性,而 COVID-19 大流行是一个短期冲击,其波动周期相对较短。本研究得出结论,COVID-19 对中国经济的影响不会蔓延为金融危机,并且相信 COVID-19 大流行对中国经济来说更多的是一场健康事件而不是经济危机。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/eb6c/9451089/ce779ce8df6e/pone.0272024.g001.jpg

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