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昆卡市历史中心出行限制对空气质量的影响及其对新冠病毒感染率的推断。

Influence of mobility restrictions on air quality in the historic center of Cuenca city and its inference on the Covid-19 rate infections.

作者信息

Rivera Campoverde Néstor Diego, Molina Campoverde Paúl Andrés, Novillo Quirola Gina Pamela, Ortiz Valverde William Fernando, Serrano Ortiz Bryan Michael

机构信息

Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, Calle Vieja y Elia Liut, Cuenca EC010150, Ecuador.

出版信息

Mater Today Proc. 2022;49:64-71. doi: 10.1016/j.matpr.2021.07.474. Epub 2021 Jul 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.matpr.2021.07.474
PMID:35018285
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8739519/
Abstract

At the end of 2019 in Wuhan China city, the outbreak of the virus called SARS-CoV 2 was originated, which later became a pandemic. In Ecuador, patient zero arrived on February 14, 2020 and the first mobility restriction imposed by the Government occurred on Tuesday, March 17 of the same year. Throughout the confinement, vehicle mobility restrictions have been modified by government entities depending on the number of infected people. This article presents an air quality study in the historic center of Cuenca city as consequence of mobility changes caused by Covid-19, where a comparison of concentration levels of polluting gases of the first semester of 2018, 2019 and 2020 is made, that allow differentiating and identifying the influence of vehicular flow on air quality. It can also be verified how the decrease in vehicle mobility restrictions influenced the increase in the rate of daily infections. For the study, air quality data published by the public mobility company of the city of Cuenca (EMOV EP) and the communications issued by the Emergency Operations Committee (COE), before and during the confinement, were collected. The acquisition, classification, analysis and interpretation of the data obtained through machine learning techniques was carried out. It can be concluded that while mobility restrictions were more severe, air quality improved and infections rate of decrease. Obtaining that polluting gases such as NO2 and CO produced by vehicular traffic show correlations of 61% and 60% respectively, which means that after 15 days of lifting the restrictive measures, the pollutants increased as well as the number of infected.

摘要

2019年底,在中国武汉市爆发了名为SARS-CoV 2的病毒,随后该病毒成为全球大流行疾病。在厄瓜多尔,首例患者于2020年2月14日抵达,同年3月17日星期二政府首次实施了出行限制措施。在整个封锁期间,政府部门根据感染人数对车辆出行限制进行了调整。本文呈现了因新冠疫情导致出行变化,从而对昆卡市历史中心空气质量进行的一项研究,其中比较了2018年、2019年和2020年第一学期污染气体的浓度水平,这有助于区分和确定车辆流量对空气质量的影响。还可以验证车辆出行限制的减少如何影响每日感染率的上升。为了这项研究,收集了昆卡市公共交通公司(EMOV EP)发布的空气质量数据以及封锁前后紧急行动委员会(COE)发布的通知。通过机器学习技术对所获得的数据进行了采集、分类、分析和解读。可以得出结论,当出行限制更为严格时,空气质量得到改善,感染率下降。结果显示,车辆交通产生的污染气体如二氧化氮和一氧化碳的相关性分别为61%和60%,这意味着在解除限制措施15天后,污染物增加,感染人数也增加。

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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/db3e/8739519/a41e3aa8ec63/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/db3e/8739519/d42c7f2c2c04/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/db3e/8739519/33f497c9deea/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/db3e/8739519/ca16782548fa/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/db3e/8739519/ad9fc5334b1a/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/db3e/8739519/7ddf13f297ab/gr6_lrg.jpg
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本文引用的文献

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Understanding the origin of COVID-19 requires to change the paradigm on zoonotic emergence from the spillover to the circulation model.
要了解 COVID-19 的起源,需要将人畜共患病从溢出模型转变为循环模型。
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