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要了解 COVID-19 的起源,需要将人畜共患病从溢出模型转变为循环模型。

Understanding the origin of COVID-19 requires to change the paradigm on zoonotic emergence from the spillover to the circulation model.

机构信息

Cirad, UMR 17, Intertryp, Montpellier, France.

Espace-Dev, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France.

出版信息

Infect Genet Evol. 2021 Nov;95:104812. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2021.104812. Epub 2021 Mar 18.

Abstract

While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with currently more than 117 million cumulated cases and 2.6 million deaths worldwide as per March 2021, its origin is still debated. Although several hypotheses have been proposed, there is still no clear explanation about how its causative agent, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in human populations. Today, scientifically-valid facts that deserve to be debated still coexist with unverified statements blurring thus the knowledge on the origin of COVID-19. Our retrospective analysis of scientific data supports the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is indeed a naturally occurring virus. However, the spillover model considered today as the main explanation to zoonotic emergence does not match the virus dynamics and somehow misguided the way researches were conducted. We conclude this review by proposing a change of paradigm and model and introduce the circulation model for explaining the various aspects of the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 emergence in humans.

摘要

尽管 COVID-19 大流行仍在继续蔓延,截至 2021 年 3 月,全球累计病例已超过 1.17 亿例,死亡病例超过 260 万例,但它的起源仍存在争议。尽管已经提出了几种假设,但仍然没有明确的解释说明导致 SARS-CoV-2 的病原体是如何在人类群体中出现的。如今,值得争论的科学事实与模糊新冠病毒起源的未经证实的说法并存。我们对科学数据的回顾性分析支持 SARS-CoV-2 确实是一种自然发生的病毒的假设。然而,目前被认为是导致人畜共患病出现的主要解释的溢出模型与病毒动力学并不匹配,并且在某种程度上误导了研究的进行。我们通过提出改变范式和模型来结束本次综述,并引入循环模型来解释 SARS-CoV-2 在人类中出现的动态的各个方面。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e8a9/7969828/eec1f2b1d569/ga1_lrg.jpg

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