Department of Mathematics, Wellesley College, Wellesley, MA, United States of America.
Department of Community Health Sciences, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, and California Center for Population Research, Los Angeles, California, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Jan 31;17(1):e0262869. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262869. eCollection 2022.
Recent work has unearthed many empirical regularities in mortality trends, including the inverse correlation between life expectancy and life span inequality, and the compression of mortality into older age ranges. These regularities have furnished important insights into the dynamics of mortality by describing, in demographic terms, how different attributes of the life table deaths distribution interrelate and change over time. However, though empirical evidence suggests that the demographically-meaningful metrics these regularities involve (e.g., life span disparity and life table entropy) are correlated to the moments of the deaths distribution (e.g., variance), the broader theoretical connections between life span inequality and the moments of the deaths distribution have yet to be elucidated. In this article we establish such connections and leverage them to furnish new insights into mortality dynamics. We prove theoretical results linking life span disparity and life table entropy to the central moments of the deaths distribution, and use these results to empirically link statistical measures of variation of the deaths distribution (e.g., variance, index of dispersion) to life span disparity and life table entropy. We validate these results via empirical analyses using data from the Human Mortality Database and extract from them several new insights into mortality shifting and compression in human populations.
最近的研究揭示了许多死亡率趋势的经验规律,包括预期寿命与寿命不平等之间的反比关系,以及死亡率向老年范围压缩。这些规律通过以人口统计学的术语描述生命表死亡分布的不同属性如何随时间相互关联和变化,为死亡率的动态提供了重要的见解。然而,尽管经验证据表明,这些规律所涉及的具有人口统计学意义的指标(例如,寿命差异和生命表熵)与死亡分布的矩(例如,方差)相关,但寿命不平等与死亡分布的矩之间更广泛的理论联系尚未阐明。在本文中,我们建立了这些联系,并利用它们为死亡率动态提供新的见解。我们证明了将寿命差异和生命表熵与死亡分布的中心矩联系起来的理论结果,并利用这些结果将死亡分布变异的统计度量(例如,方差、离散度指数)与寿命差异和生命表熵联系起来。我们通过使用人类死亡率数据库中的数据进行实证分析来验证这些结果,并从中提取出关于人类群体死亡率转移和压缩的几个新见解。