Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Population Research Unit, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2022 May 27;77(Suppl_2):S138-S147. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbab220.
To investigate the slowdown in mortality improvement in the United States, United Kingdom, and comparator countries observed in the first decade of the twenty-first century and critically evaluate proposed explanations.
Change-point analysis to identify the year of change in comparison of national mortality trends and linear spline models in the investigation of subnational differences using data from the Human Mortality Database, Global Burden of Disease cause-specific data, and, for the United Kingdom, national statistics data. Consideration of the impact of using different methods to estimate overall mortality is also concluded together with a review of methodological assumptions made in previous studies.
The results confirm the slowdown in mortality improvement observed in the early twenty-first century but indicate that proposed explanations for this are inadequate on a range of counts.
Mortality improvement slowed down in the early twenty-first century but the explanations advanced, such as opioid use in the United States or influenza epidemics and austerity programs in the United Kingdom, seem unlikely to account for this. Further research considering longer-term life course and cohort influences is needed.
探讨 21 世纪初，美国、英国和可比国家的死亡率改善速度放缓的现象，并对提出的解释进行批判性评估。
采用变点分析比较国家死亡率趋势，采用线性样条模型研究亚国家差异，数据来自人类死亡率数据库、全球疾病负担特定病因数据，以及英国的国家统计数据。同时考虑使用不同方法估计总体死亡率的影响，并回顾之前研究中所做的方法学假设。
结果证实了 21 世纪初观察到的死亡率改善速度放缓，但表明针对这一现象提出的解释在很多方面都不充分。
21 世纪初，死亡率改善速度放缓，但诸如美国的阿片类药物使用或英国的流感疫情和紧缩计划等提出的解释似乎不太可能对此进行解释。需要进一步研究考虑更长期的生命历程和队列影响。
