Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Hubei Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China.
Int J Public Health. 2022 Sep 15;67:1605147. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2022.1605147. eCollection 2022.
This study aimed to estimate the long-term trends of deaths attributable smoking in China, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US). Using 2000-2019 death data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, we estimated age-period-cohort effects on smoking attributable mortality, and decomposed of differences in smoking-attributable deaths in 1990 and 2019 into demographic factors. From 1990 to 2019, smoking-attributable deaths increased in China, which was due to population growth and demographic aging. From 1990 to 2019, both age-standardized smoking attributable mortality rates trended downward across countries. Among four countries, age rate ratios (RRs) for smoking-attributable mortality increased with age, while period and cohort RRs decreased with year. The age-standardized mortality rates, period effects and cohort effects of smoking attributable mortality in China, Japan, UK, and US have been declining in both sexes from 1990 to 2019, which suggests that smoke-free policies, help to quit tobacco use, improved health education, more accessible healthcare service, and increased taxes have been effective. Additionally, increased smoking attributable deaths in elderly should got more attention.
本研究旨在估计中国、日本、英国和美国因吸烟导致的死亡的长期趋势。利用 2000-2019 年全球疾病负担（GBD）2019 年的死亡数据，我们估计了吸烟导致死亡的年龄-时期-队列效应，并将 1990 年和 2019 年因吸烟导致的死亡差异分解为人口因素。从 1990 年到 2019 年，中国因吸烟导致的死亡人数增加，这是由于人口增长和人口老龄化。从 1990 年到 2019 年，四个国家的年龄标准化吸烟归因死亡率均呈下降趋势。在四个国家中，吸烟归因死亡率的年龄率比（RR）随年龄的增长而增加，而时期和队列 RR 随年份的增加而减少。1990 年至 2019 年，中国、日本、英国和美国的男性和女性的吸烟归因死亡率的年龄标准化死亡率、时期效应和队列效应均呈下降趋势，这表明无烟政策、帮助戒烟、改善健康教育、更便捷的医疗保健服务和增加税收已产生效果。此外，老年人因吸烟导致的死亡人数增加应引起更多关注。
