Gu Jianqiang, Yue Xiao-Guang, Nosheen Safia, Shi Lei
Business School, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China.
School of Sciences, European University Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Resour Policy. 2022 Jun;76:102582. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102582. Epub 2022 Feb 2.
In this paper, we investigate the impact of the government economic policies in addition to the more stringent Covid-19 policies on stock index returns of GREF countries, that is, a new economic bloc of 5 countries (Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and China) to foster for sustainable development of the region. Using the Panel, ARDL model and data for index returns and economic and Covid-19 control policies for the period March 1, 2020-June 30, 2021, results show that Income support, workplace closure, stringency index, and cancellation of public events have a significant positive impact on the stock index returns over the long run. In contrast, school closure, restriction on public gatherings, and international travel control policies negatively impact stock returns. In comparison, Debt policies, Covid-19 testing policies, health index, and face-covering policies remain insignificant. In the short run, stringent index and face-covering policies remain positively significant. Results of the study suggest significant policy implications that can help reform economic and Covid-19 control policies and promote the region's economic growth over the long-run period.
在本文中，我们研究了政府经济政策以及更为严格的新冠疫情防控政策对“GREF国家”股指回报的影响。“GREF国家”是一个由五个国家（巴基斯坦、伊朗、土耳其、俄罗斯和中国）组成的新经济集团，旨在促进该地区的可持续发展。利用面板自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型以及2020年3月1日至2021年6月30日期间的股指回报数据、经济政策数据和新冠疫情防控政策数据，结果表明，从长期来看，收入支持、工作场所关闭、严格指数以及公共活动取消对股指回报具有显著的正向影响。相比之下，学校关闭、公共集会限制以及国际旅行管控政策对股票回报产生负面影响。此外，债务政策、新冠病毒检测政策、健康指数以及口罩佩戴政策的影响并不显著。在短期内，严格指数和口罩佩戴政策仍具有显著的正向影响。研究结果表明了重要的政策含义，有助于改革经济政策和新冠疫情防控政策，并在长期促进该地区的经济增长。
