School of Marxism, East China Normal University, 500 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200241, China.
School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Road, Shanghai 201306, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 12;20(6):4993. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20064993.
This paper investigates the effectiveness of government measures implemented against COVID-19 and the factors influencing a country's economic growth from a global perspective. With the help of the data of the Government Response Stringency Index (GRSI), Google mobility, and confirmed COVID-19 daily cases, we conducted a panel model for 105 countries and regions from 11 March 2020 to 31 June 2021 to explore the effects of response policies in different countries against the pandemic. First, the results showed that staying in residential places had the strongest correlation with confirmed cases. Second, in countries with higher government stringency, stay-at-home policies carried out in the early spread of the pandemic had the most effective the impact. In addition, the results have also been strictly robustly analyzed by applying the propensity score matching (PSM) method. Third, after reconstructing a panel data of 47 OECD countries, we further concluded that governments should take stricter restrictive measures in response to COVID-19. Even though it may also cause a shock to the market in the short term, this may not be sustainable. As long as the policy response is justified, it will moderate the negative effect on the economy over time, and finally have a positive effect.
本文从全球视角调查了各国政府针对 COVID-19 实施的措施的效果，以及影响国家经济增长的因素。借助政府反应强度指数（GRSI）、谷歌流动性和确诊 COVID-19 每日病例数据，我们对 2020 年 3 月 11 日至 2021 年 6 月 31 日期间的 105 个国家和地区进行了面板模型分析，以探讨各国针对疫情的应对政策的效果。首先，结果表明，留在住所与确诊病例之间存在最强的相关性。其次，在政府严格程度较高的国家，在疫情早期实施的居家政策效果最为显著。此外，我们还通过应用倾向评分匹配（PSM）方法对结果进行了严格的稳健性分析。第三，在对 47 个经合组织国家的面板数据进行重构后，我们进一步得出结论，政府应该对 COVID-19 采取更严格的限制措施。尽管这可能会在短期内对市场造成冲击，但这种冲击可能是不可持续的。只要政策反应合理，它将随着时间的推移减轻对经济的负面影响，并最终产生积极影响。
