Bezner Kerr Rachel, Naess Lars Otto, Allen-O'Neil Bridget, Totin Edmond, Nyantakyi-Frimpong Hanson, Risvoll Camilla, Rivera Ferre Marta G, López-I-Gelats Feliu, Eriksen Siri
Department of Global Development, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Institute of Development Studies, Brighton, UK.
Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Jun;28(11):3580-3604. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16124. Epub 2022 Mar 10.
Climate change scenarios have significant implications for the livelihoods and food security of particular groups in society and will necessitate a range of adaptation actions. While there is a significant literature on the social as well as biophysical factors and limits to adaptation, less is known about the interactions between these, and what such interactions mean for the prospects of achieving sustainable and resilient food systems. This paper is an attempt at addressing this gap by examining changing biophysical and social factors, with specific consideration of vulnerable groups, across four case studies (Ghana, Malawi, Norway and Spain). In each case, future climate change scenarios and associated biophysical limits are mapped onto four key social factors that drive vulnerability and mediate adaptation, namely, scale, history, power and politics, and social differentiation. We then consider what the interaction between biophysical limits and socio-political dynamics means for the options for and limits to future adaptation, and how climate may interact with, and reshape, socio-political elements. We find that biophysical limits and socio-political factors do not operate in isolation, but interact, with dynamic relationships determining the 'space' or set of options for sustainable adaptation. By connecting the perspectives of biophysical and social factors, the study illuminates the risks of unanticipated outcomes that result from the disregard of local contexts in the implementation of adaptation measures. We conclude that a framework focusing on the space for sustainable adaptation conditioned by biophysical and social factors, and their interactions, can help provide evidence on what does and does not constitute sustainable adaptation, and help to counter unhelpful narratives of climate change as a sole or dominant cause of challenges in food systems.
气候变化情景对社会中特定群体的生计和粮食安全有着重大影响，这将需要一系列适应行动。虽然有大量关于社会以及生物物理因素和适应限制的文献，但对于这些因素之间的相互作用以及这种相互作用对实现可持续和有复原力的粮食系统前景意味着什么，我们了解得较少。本文试图通过研究四个案例研究（加纳、马拉维、挪威和西班牙）中不断变化的生物物理和社会因素，并特别考虑弱势群体，来填补这一空白。在每个案例中，未来气候变化情景和相关的生物物理限制被映射到四个驱动脆弱性并调节适应的关键社会因素上，即规模、历史、权力与政治以及社会分化。然后，我们思考生物物理限制与社会政治动态之间的相互作用对未来适应的选择和限制意味着什么，以及气候如何与社会政治因素相互作用并重塑这些因素。我们发现，生物物理限制和社会政治因素并非孤立运作，而是相互作用，动态关系决定了可持续适应的“空间”或一系列选择。通过将生物物理和社会因素的观点联系起来，该研究揭示了在实施适应措施时忽视当地背景所导致的意外结果的风险。我们得出结论，一个关注由生物物理和社会因素及其相互作用所决定的可持续适应空间的框架，有助于提供关于什么构成以及什么不构成可持续适应的证据，并有助于反驳将气候变化视为粮食系统挑战的唯一或主要原因这种无益的说法。
