Paul Abhijit, Kadnur Harshith B, Ray Animesh, Chatterjee Samrat, Wig Naveet
Complex Analysis Group, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute (THSTI), Faridabad, Haryana, India.
Department of Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Science, New Delhi, India.
J Family Med Prim Care. 2021 Nov;10(11):4030-4035. doi: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_830_21. Epub 2021 Nov 29.
The present study aims to predict the likelihood of and likely time required to attain herd immunity against COVID-19 in New Delhi due to natural infection.
An ODE-based mathematical model was constructed by extending the classical SEIR model to predict the seroprevalence rate. We estimated the parameter values for Delhi using available data (reported cases and the seroprevalence rate) and used them for future prediction. Also, changes in the seroprevalence rate with different possibilities of reinfection were predicted.
Maximum seroprevalence rate obtained through our model is 31.65% and also a reduction in the seroprevalence rate was observed for the upcoming one month (month of January, 2021) due to the reduced transmission rate. After increasing the transmission rate to the value same as the third wave in New Delhi, we obtained a maximum value of 54.96%. This maximum value significantly decreased with the reduction in the reinfection possibilities. Also, a little impact of the duration of persistence of antibodies, 180 vs 105 days, was observed on the maximum seroprevalence.
This modelling study suggests that natural infection alone, as gauged by serial sero-surveys, may not result in attainment of herd immunity in the state of Delhi.
