Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université de Paris, CNRS UMR2000, Paris, France.
Santé publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint-Maurice, France.
Euro Surveill. 2022 Feb;27(6). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.6.2001953.
IntroductionSARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread rapidly worldwide. In January 2020, a surveillance system was implemented in France for early detection of cases and their contacts to help limit secondary transmissions.AimTo use contact-tracing data collected during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic to better characterise SARS-CoV-2 transmission.MethodsWe analysed data collected during contact tracing and retrospective epidemiological investigations in France from 24 January to 30 March 2020. We assessed the secondary clinical attack rate and characterised the risk of a contact becoming a case. We described chains of transmission and estimated key parameters of spread.ResultsDuring the study period, 6,082 contacts of 735 confirmed cases were traced. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 4.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.6-4.6), increasing with age of index case and contact. Compared with co-workers/friends, family contacts were at higher risk of becoming cases (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4-3.0) and nosocomial contacts were at lower risk (AOR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1-0.7). Of 328 infector/infectee pairs, 49% were family members. The distribution of secondary cases was highly over-dispersed: 80% of secondary cases were caused by 10% of cases. The mean serial interval was 5.1 days (interquartile range (IQR): 2-8 days) in contact tracing pairs, where late transmission events may be censored, and 6.8 (3-8) days in pairs investigated retrospectively.ConclusionThis study increases knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including the importance of superspreading events during the onset of the pandemic.
引言
导致 COVID-19 的 SARS-CoV-2 病毒已在全球范围内迅速传播。2020 年 1 月,法国实施了一项监测系统,以早期发现病例及其接触者,帮助限制二次传播。
目的
利用 COVID-19 大流行初期收集的接触者追踪数据,更好地描述 SARS-CoV-2 的传播。
方法
我们分析了 2020 年 1 月 24 日至 3 月 30 日期间在法国进行的接触者追踪和回顾性流行病学调查中收集的数据。我们评估了二次临床攻击率,并描述了接触者成为病例的风险。我们描述了传播链,并估计了传播的关键参数。
结果
在研究期间,追踪了 735 例确诊病例的 6082 名接触者。总体二次临床攻击率为 4.1%(95%置信区间[CI]:3.6-4.6),随着病例和接触者年龄的增加而增加。与同事/朋友相比,家庭接触者成为病例的风险更高(调整后的优势比[AOR]:2.1,95%CI:1.4-3.0),医院接触者的风险较低(AOR:0.3,95%CI:0.1-0.7)。在 328 对感染者/感染者中,49%是家庭成员。继发病例的分布高度过度分散:80%的继发病例是由 10%的病例引起的。在接触追踪对中,平均序列间隔为 5.1 天(四分位距[IQR]:2-8 天),这里可能存在晚期传播事件的删失,而在回顾性调查对中为 6.8(3-8)天。
结论
本研究增加了对 SARS-CoV-2 传播的认识,包括大流行初期超级传播事件的重要性。