The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd, Private Bag 4704, Christchurch Mail Centre, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
Sci Rep. 2022 Feb 11;12(1):2340. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-05032-1.
The western corn rootworm is an invasive species to Europe and is a major agricultural pest that causes widespread economic and yield losses to maize producers. The Gompertz curve was originally used to model human population mortality. It is a sigmoidal curve where the beginning and end of a period shows the slowest time for growth, and adequately describes observed dynamics of many phenomena. We propose the use of the Gompertz function in a Bayesian Hierarchical framework to model the emergence dynamics of the western corn rootworm beetle. The proposed model includes the use of climatic variables to assess how weather can influence the observed dynamics. We apply the model to Austrian monitoring data collected in 2004-2015.
西方玉米根萤叶甲是一种入侵欧洲的物种，也是玉米种植者面临的主要农业害虫，它会造成广泛的经济和产量损失。戈珀特曲线最初用于模拟人类人口死亡率。它是一种呈“S”形的曲线，在一个时期的开始和结束时显示出增长最慢的时期，能够充分描述许多现象的观察动态。我们建议在贝叶斯分层框架中使用戈珀特函数来模拟西方玉米根萤叶甲的出现动态。所提出的模型包括使用气候变量来评估天气如何影响观察到的动态。我们将模型应用于 2004-2015 年在奥地利收集的监测数据。
