Kawaguchi Kohei, Kodama Naomi, Tanaka Mari
Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong.
Faculty of Economics, Meiji Gakuin University, Japan.
J Jpn Int Econ. 2021 Sep;61:101138. doi: 10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101138. Epub 2021 May 21.
This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers' expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms' sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 9 percentage points decline due to COVID-19, even though the Japanese anti-contagion policy was in a form of the government's request that is not legally enforceable. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum and prompt subsidies improved firms' prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms' performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that the anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.
本研究通过对日本小企业管理者对疫情、政策和企业绩效的预期进行调查，对反传染政策和经济政策对小企业的影响进行了因果推断。我们首先发现，即使日本的反传染政策采取的是政府要求的形式且无法律强制执行力，但停业要求使目标企业的销售额在因新冠疫情导致的基线下降9个百分点的基础上又下降了10个百分点。其次，利用资格标准中的断点，我们发现一次性即时补贴使企业的生存前景提高了19个百分点。第三，企业绩效的中期复苏预计将主要取决于感染何时结束，这表明反传染政策可以辅助实现长期经济目标。
