Tervala Juha, Watson Timothy
University of Helsinki, Finland.
Australian National University, Australia.
J Int Money Finance. 2022 Jun;124:102614. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102614. Epub 2022 Feb 18.
The COVID-19 pandemic initiated a deep global recession, and with interest rates at very low levels, warrants consideration of the efficacy of different forms of fiscal stimulus in response. History reveals that deep recessions may cause output and total factor productivity (TFP) hysteresis, a permanent or highly persistent fall in the levels of output and TFP relative to pre-recession trends. This article analyses the output and welfare multipliers of fiscal stimulus during a recession using a macro model with TFP and output hysteresis. We find that transfer payments, public consumption and investment all have high output and welfare multipliers due to their positive effects on TFP in a recessionary environment. However, public investment has the highest output and welfare multipliers, because it has a more positive impact on labour productivity due to the increase in the public capital stock.
新冠疫情引发了一场严重的全球衰退，鉴于利率处于极低水平，有必要考虑不同形式财政刺激措施的效果。历史表明，深度衰退可能导致产出和全要素生产率（TFP）滞后，即产出和TFP水平相对于衰退前趋势出现永久性或高度持续性的下降。本文使用一个包含TFP和产出滞后的宏观模型，分析衰退期间财政刺激措施的产出乘数和福利乘数。我们发现，由于在衰退环境中对TFP有积极影响，转移支付、公共消费和投资都具有较高的产出乘数和福利乘数。然而，公共投资的产出乘数和福利乘数最高，因为公共资本存量的增加对劳动生产率有更积极的影响。
