Sennoga Edward, Balma Lacina
Country Economics Department African Development Bank Abidjan Côte d'Ivoire.
Forecasting and Research Department, Macroeconomic Policy African Development Bank Abidjan Côte d'Ivoire.
Afr Dev Rev. 2022 Jun;34(Suppl 1):S8-S33. doi: 10.1111/1467-8268.12648. Epub 2022 Jul 19.
The article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies in Africa through the application of a novel Debt, Investment and Growth model with a segmented Labor market (DIG-Labor). The pandemic is modeled via supply shock that disrupts economic activities in countries in Africa, followed by effects on household consumption behavior and welfare, and business investment decisions. The DIG-Labor model is calibrated to account for informality, which is a key characteristic of economies in Africa. We find that, in the absence of appropriate remedial measures, the COVID-19 pandemic reduces employment in the formal and informal sectors and scales back consumption for savers and non-savers, with the reduction in consumption being more pronounced for savers. These contractions lead to an economic recession in Africa and widen the fiscal and current account deficits, among others. The effects of fiscal stimulus packages in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and various financing mechanisms are also examined. A key finding is that various policy responses to the emerging COVID-19 induced macroeconomic imbalances have diverse implications, which should be carefully examined to mitigate the negative consequences while maximizing the opportunities for a swift, stronger and more inclusive economic recovery.
本文通过应用一种新颖的带有分割劳动力市场的债务、投资与增长模型（DIG-Labor），研究了新冠疫情对非洲经济的影响。该疫情通过供应冲击进行建模，这种冲击扰乱了非洲各国的经济活动，随后影响家庭消费行为和福利以及企业投资决策。DIG-Labor模型经过校准以考虑非正规性，这是非洲经济的一个关键特征。我们发现，在没有适当补救措施的情况下，新冠疫情会减少正规部门和非正规部门的就业，并缩减储蓄者和非储蓄者的消费，储蓄者的消费减少更为明显。这些收缩导致非洲经济衰退，并扩大财政赤字和经常账户赤字等。本文还研究了应对新冠疫情的财政刺激计划的效果以及各种融资机制。一个关键发现是，针对新冠疫情引发的新兴宏观经济失衡的各种政策反应具有不同的影响，应仔细研究这些影响，以减轻负面后果，同时最大限度地利用机会实现迅速、强劲和更具包容性的经济复苏。
