Rodríguez-Recio Mariano, Wikenros Camilla, Zimmermann Barbara, Sand Håkan
Unit of Biodiversity and Conservation, Department of Biology and Geology, Physics and Inorganic Chemistry, Rey Juan Carlos University, ESCET, Tulipán s/n, 28933 Madrid, Spain.
Grimsö Wildlife Research Station, Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-73993 Riddarhyttan, Sweden.
Biology (Basel). 2022 Feb 16;11(2):317. doi: 10.3390/biology11020317.
The ongoing recolonisations of human-transformed environments in Europe by large carnivores like the wolf means that conservation conflicts could re-surface, among other reasons, due to predation on ungulate game species. We estimated the effect of wolves on ungulate species using data on wolf prey selection, kill rates and territory size to build a hypothetical case of future expansion. We extrapolated results on predation from the current wolf distribution in central Sweden and eastern Poland to the eventual wolf recolonisation of southern Sweden. We then calculated the proportion of five ungulate game species killed annually by wolves, and the ratio between the predicted annual predation by wolves given future colonization and the number of ungulates currently harvested by hunters. Results showed that wolf recolonization in southern Sweden would have a minor impact on the estimated population densities of red deer , fallow deer and wild boar , but is likely to lead to a significant reduction in human captures of moose and roe deer . The current five-ungulate species system in southern Sweden suggests a potential for two to four times higher wolf density than the two-ungulate species system in the northern part of their current distribution. Management and conservation of recolonizing large carnivores require a better understanding of the observed impact on game populations under similar ecological conditions to ameliorate conservation conflicts and achieve a paradigm of coexistence. Integrating these predictions into management is paramount to the current rewilding trend occurring in many areas of Europe or North America.
狼等大型食肉动物对欧洲人类改造环境的持续重新殖民化意味着，除其他原因外，由于对有蹄类猎物物种的捕食，保护冲突可能会再次出现。我们利用狼的猎物选择、捕杀率和领地面积数据来估计狼对有蹄类物种的影响，以构建一个未来扩张的假设案例。我们将瑞典中部和波兰东部当前狼分布区域的捕食结果推算到瑞典南部狼最终重新殖民化的情况。然后，我们计算了狼每年捕杀的五种有蹄类猎物物种的比例，以及在未来殖民化情况下狼的预计年捕食量与目前猎人捕获的有蹄类动物数量之间的比率。结果表明，瑞典南部狼的重新殖民化对马鹿、黇鹿和野猪的估计种群密度影响较小，但可能会导致人类对驼鹿和狍子的捕获量大幅减少。瑞典南部目前的五种有蹄类物种系统表明，狼的密度有可能比其当前分布北部的两种有蹄类物种系统高出两到四倍。对重新殖民化的大型食肉动物进行管理和保护，需要更好地了解在类似生态条件下对猎物种群的观察到的影响，以缓解保护冲突并实现共存模式。将这些预测纳入管理对于欧洲或北美的许多地区目前正在发生的野化趋势至关重要。
