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利用物种分布模型确定在未来气候变化情景下进行营养再野生化的机会。

Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change.

机构信息

Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark

Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.

出版信息

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2018 Oct 22;373(1761):20170446. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0446.

Abstract

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

摘要

营养物再野生化,即将物种引入以促进自我调节的生物多样性生态系统,是一种面向未来的生态恢复方法。在二十一世纪及以后,人类引起的气候变化对全球生物多样性和生态系统功能构成了重大威胁。规划营养物再野生化项目的一个关键方面是选择合适的地点,这些地点要符合当前和未来气候下焦点物种的需求。物种分布模型(SDMs)是目前用于得出物种环境适宜性的空间明确预测的主要工具,但它们在营养物再野生化项目中的应用程度有限。在这里,我们概述了 SDMs 在营养物再野生化项目中的应用,概述了方法选择和问题,并提供了综合和展望。然后,我们预测了 17 种被提议作为营养物再野生化候选者的大型分类群的潜在分布,这些分类群代表了不同的大陆和栖息地。我们确定了在当前气候下这些(再)引入地区这些物种的广泛气候适宜性。虽然一些物种在这些地区的部分地区的适宜性将会降低,但未来的气候条件通常仍然适宜。我们的结论是,气候变化不是营养物再野生化的主要障碍,如目前文献中所讨论的那样。本文是主题为“营养物再野生化:全球变化下的生态系统后果”的一部分。

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