Department of Molecular Genetics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel.
Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Nat Hum Behav. 2022 Feb;6(2):193-206. doi: 10.1038/s41562-021-01281-8. Epub 2022 Feb 24.
The greatest hope for a return to normalcy following the COVID-19 pandemic is worldwide vaccination. Yet, a relaxation of social distancing that allows increased transmissibility, coupled with selection pressure due to vaccination, will probably lead to the emergence of vaccine resistance. We analyse the evolutionary dynamics of COVID-19 in the presence of dynamic contact reduction and in response to vaccination. We use infection and vaccination data from six different countries. We show that under slow vaccination, resistance is very likely to appear even if social distancing is maintained. Under fast vaccination, the emergence of mutants can be prevented if social distancing is maintained during vaccination. We analyse multiple human factors that affect the evolutionary potential of the virus, including the extent of dynamic social distancing, vaccination campaigns, vaccine design, boosters and vaccine hesitancy. We provide guidelines for policies that aim to minimize the probability of emergence of vaccine-resistant variants.
在 COVID-19 大流行之后恢复正常的最大希望是全球范围内的疫苗接种。然而，社交距离的放松使得传染性增加，再加上疫苗接种带来的选择压力，可能会导致疫苗耐药性的出现。我们分析了在动态接触减少的情况下和针对疫苗接种的情况下 COVID-19 的进化动态。我们使用了来自六个不同国家的感染和疫苗接种数据。我们表明，即使保持社交距离，在缓慢的疫苗接种下，耐药性也很可能出现。在快速疫苗接种的情况下，如果在疫苗接种期间保持社交距离，就可以防止突变体的出现。我们分析了影响病毒进化潜力的多个人为因素，包括动态社交距离的程度、疫苗接种运动、疫苗设计、加强针和疫苗犹豫。我们为旨在最大限度地降低疫苗耐药性变异出现概率的政策提供了指导。
