Gračner Tadeja, Kapinos Kandice A, Gertler Paul J
RAND Corporation, 1200 S Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202.
UT Southwestern Medical Center, Department of Population and Data Sciences, 5323 Harry Hines Blvd., Dallas, TX 75390.
Food Policy. 2022 Jan;106. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102193. Epub 2021 Dec 23.
Several governments are considering taxes on non-essential energy-dense, high calorie foods (NEDF) to increase their prices and thereby encourage better diet and health. Alongside a tax on sugary drinks in January 2014, Mexico implemented such a tax: an 8 percent ad-valorem tax on NEDF, defined as those with energy density equal or larger than 275kcal/100g. We study the changes in the prices of taxed and tax-exempt foods following this tax both on average and by tax-eligible foods across store types and cities, using monthly price data between 2012 and 2016. We compare within-product price changes before and after the tax adjusting for product fixed effects, seasonality, and trends, and find that prices of taxed foods increased by 4.8 % on average, but differentially across foods. Prices of candies, cookies and packaged pastries increased by eight or more percent post-tax (vs pre-tax); prices of cakes, and savory snacks increased by less. Prices of fresh pastry and ready-to-eat cereal increased, but only in 2014. Prices of chocolate and pizza did not increase after the tax. For tax-exempt foods, no significant price changes were observed. Variability in price changes for taxed foods were observed by cities as well as by stores: increases were larger in supermarkets compared to smaller grocery stores on average and for most foods. Differences in how prices changed across foods, cities and stores have implications for who is likely to be affected by the tax and how tax effects on diet may vary due to the differential tax pass-through in addition to a heterogenous demand response to changed prices.
几个国家的政府正在考虑对非必需的能量密集型高热量食品（NEDF）征税，以提高其价格，从而鼓励更好的饮食和健康。2014年1月，墨西哥除了对含糖饮料征税外，还实施了这样一项税收：对NEDF征收8%的从价税，NEDF被定义为能量密度等于或大于275千卡/100克的食品。我们利用2012年至2016年的月度价格数据，研究了这项税收实施后，被征税食品和免税食品价格的平均变化情况，以及不同商店类型和城市中符合征税条件的食品的价格变化情况。我们在调整了产品固定效应、季节性和趋势之后，比较了征税前后产品内部的价格变化，发现被征税食品的价格平均上涨了4.8%，但不同食品的涨幅有所差异。糖果、饼干和包装糕点的价格在征税后（与征税前相比）上涨了8%或更多；蛋糕和咸味小吃的价格涨幅较小。新鲜糕点和即食谷物的价格有所上涨，但仅在2014年。巧克力和披萨的价格在征税后没有上涨。对于免税食品，未观察到显著的价格变化。不同城市和商店的被征税食品价格变化存在差异：平均而言，与小型杂货店相比，超市中大多数食品的价格涨幅更大。食品、城市和商店之间价格变化的差异，对于可能受到税收影响的人群，以及除了对价格变化的异质需求反应之外，税收对饮食的影响如何因不同的税收转嫁而有所不同，都具有启示意义。
