Illescas-Zárate Daniel, Batis Carolina, Ramírez-Silva Ivonne, Torres-Álvarez Rossana, Rivera Juan A, Barrientos-Gutiérrez Tonatiuh
Center for Nutrition and Health Research, National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
CONACYT-Center for Nutrition and Health Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
Front Public Health. 2021 Jan 28;8:591696. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.591696. eCollection 2020.
Consumption of foods high in energy, sugar, fat, and salt contributes to the increase in body mass index and the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children. Mexico implemented an 8% tax to non-essential energy-dense foods (NEDF) in 2014 as part of a national strategy to reduce obesity. We modeled the potential effect of the NEDF tax on body mass index and overweight and obesity in Mexican children (6-17 years). We used the Dynamic Childhood Growth and Obesity Model calibrated to Mexican children to simulate the potential 1-year effect of the NEDF tax on body weight. Inputs for the model included NEDF consumption, weight, and height, obtained from the 2012 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. To project the potential impact of the tax, we ran a first simulation without intervention and another reducing the caloric intake from NEDF in the proportion observed in the Mexican population after the tax (-5.1%). The tax effect was defined as the absolute difference in body mass index and prevalence of overweight and obesity between both models. The tax on NEDF should lead to a mean reduction of 4.1 g or 17.4 kcal/day of NEDF at the population level. One year after the tax, mean body weight and body mass index should decrease 0.40 kg and 0.19 kg/m; this translates into -1.7 and -0.4% points in overweight and obesity, respectively. The use of fiscal instruments to discourage the consumption of NEDF could help to reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children.
食用高能量、高糖、高脂肪和高盐的食物会导致儿童体重指数上升以及超重和肥胖患病率增加。墨西哥在2014年对非必需能量密集型食品（NEDF）征收8%的税，作为国家减少肥胖战略的一部分。我们模拟了NEDF税对墨西哥儿童（6 - 17岁）体重指数以及超重和肥胖情况的潜在影响。我们使用针对墨西哥儿童校准的动态儿童生长和肥胖模型来模拟NEDF税对体重的潜在1年影响。该模型的输入数据包括从2012年墨西哥国家健康和营养调查中获取的NEDF消费量、体重和身高。为了预测该税的潜在影响，我们进行了一次无干预的模拟，并进行了另一次模拟，按照税收实施后墨西哥人群中观察到的比例（-5.1%）减少NEDF的热量摄入。税收效应定义为两个模型之间体重指数以及超重和肥胖患病率的绝对差异。对NEDF征税在人群层面应导致NEDF平均每日摄入量减少4.1克或17.4千卡。征税一年后，平均体重和体重指数应分别下降0.40千克和0.19千克/米²；这分别转化为超重和肥胖患病率下降-1.7和-0.4个百分点。使用财政手段抑制NEDF的消费有助于降低儿童超重和肥胖的患病率。
