Potential Impact of the Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods Tax on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Children: A Modeling Study.

Consumption of foods high in energy, sugar, fat, and salt contributes to the increase in body mass index and the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children. Mexico implemented an 8% tax to non-essential energy-dense foods (NEDF) in 2014 as part of a national strategy to reduce obesity. We modeled the potential effect of the NEDF tax on body mass index and overweight and obesity in Mexican children (6-17 years). We used the Dynamic Childhood Growth and Obesity Model calibrated to Mexican children to simulate the potential 1-year effect of the NEDF tax on body weight. Inputs for the model included NEDF consumption, weight, and height, obtained from the 2012 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. To project the potential impact of the tax, we ran a first simulation without intervention and another reducing the caloric intake from NEDF in the proportion observed in the Mexican population after the tax (-5.1%). The tax effect was defined as the absolute difference in body mass index and prevalence of overweight and obesity between both models. The tax on NEDF should lead to a mean reduction of 4.1 g or 17.4 kcal/day of NEDF at the population level. One year after the tax, mean body weight and body mass index should decrease 0.40 kg and 0.19 kg/m; this translates into -1.7 and -0.4% points in overweight and obesity, respectively. The use of fiscal instruments to discourage the consumption of NEDF could help to reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children.