Junquera-Badilla Isabel, Basto-Abreu Ana, Reyes-García Alan, Colchero M Arantxa, Barrientos-Gutierrez Tonatiuh
Center for Population and Health Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
Center for Health Systems Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
BMC Public Health. 2025 Feb 14;25(1):624. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-21745-0.
In 2014, Mexico implemented an 8% tax on non-essential energy-dense foods (NEDFs) exceeding 275 calories per 100 g to improve dietary quality and reduce obesity prevalence. While this tax has shown promising results in reducing purchases of these items and decreasing obesity rates in children, its potential may be limited by the relatively low tax rate. We aimed to assess the potential impact of increasing the existing NEDF tax on body weight (kg), body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, and obesity cases in the Mexican adult population.
Using data from the Mexican 2018 National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT-2018), and a microsimulation mathematical model that translates adult energy balance into body weight changes, we analyzed the potential impact on obesity over 10 years. Our final sample included 15,109 participants, representing approximately 76,221,919 adults aged 20 and older in Mexico.
We found that doubling the existing tax (16%) could result in an average weight reduction of 0.4 kg and a 3.2% reduction in obesity prevalence over 10 years. If the NEDF tax was quadrupled (32%), an average weight loss of 1.2 kg and an 8.8% reduction in obesity prevalence could be expected. Males, low-income individuals, and adults aged 20 to 39 years would benefit the most, showing a higher expected reduction in obesity.
Very few examples of taxation on NEDFs exist worldwide, and Mexico has been a key example. Policymakers should consider a tax reform that increases the current NEDFs tax to achieve larger health benefits.
2014年，墨西哥对每100克热量超过275卡路里的非必需高能量食品（NEDF）征收8%的税，以改善饮食质量并降低肥胖率。虽然这项税收在减少这些食品的购买量和降低儿童肥胖率方面已显示出有希望的结果，但其潜力可能受到相对较低税率的限制。我们旨在评估提高现行NEDF税对墨西哥成年人群体重（千克）、体重指数（BMI）、肥胖率和肥胖病例的潜在影响。
利用墨西哥2018年全国健康与营养调查（ENSANUT - 2018）的数据，以及一个将成人能量平衡转化为体重变化的微观模拟数学模型，我们分析了10年内对肥胖的潜在影响。我们的最终样本包括15109名参与者，代表墨西哥约76221919名20岁及以上的成年人。
我们发现将现行税率提高一倍（16%）可能导致10年内平均体重减轻0.4千克，肥胖率降低3.2%。如果NEDF税提高四倍（32%），预计平均体重减轻1.2千克，肥胖率降低8.8%。男性、低收入人群以及20至39岁的成年人受益最大，肥胖率预计下降幅度更高。
全球范围内对NEDF征税的例子很少，墨西哥是一个关键例子。政策制定者应考虑进行税收改革，提高现行NEDF税，以实现更大的健康效益。
