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新冠疫情困扰着量化宽松政策向汇率的传导。

The COVID-19 pandemic haunting the transmission of the quantitative easing to the exchange rate.

作者信息

Aloui Donia

机构信息

Carthage Business School, University of Tunis Carthage, Tunisia.

GEF2A Lab, Institut Supérieur de Gestion de Tunis, Tunisia.

出版信息

Financ Res Lett. 2021 Nov;43:102025. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102025. Epub 2021 Mar 19.

Abstract

The sudden spread of the COVID-19 pandemic disturbed the entire macroeconomic system and overturned the expectations of financial market participants and decision-makers. Using a TVP-BVAR-SV model, I investigate the transmission of the quantitative easing (QE) to the exchange rate and the business credit in the Eurozone during the pre-and post-COVID-19 outbreak. I find that the responses of the exchange rate EUR/USD to monetary policy shocks vary over time. In particular, I show that the QE policy does not generate the expected effect on the exchange rate during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The results imply that the unforeseen COVID-19 crisis has disturbed and modified investors' behavior.

摘要

新冠疫情的突然蔓延扰乱了整个宏观经济体系,颠覆了金融市场参与者和决策者的预期。我使用时变参数贝叶斯向量自回归带随机波动(TVP-BVAR-SV)模型,研究了新冠疫情爆发前后量化宽松政策(QE)在欧元区对汇率和商业信贷的传导。我发现,欧元兑美元汇率对货币政策冲击的反应随时间而变化。特别是,我表明量化宽松政策在新冠疫情期间并未对汇率产生预期效果。结果意味着,不可预见的新冠危机扰乱并改变了投资者的行为。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f8ef/8863932/16ad820c5a33/gr1_lrg.jpg

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