Gist Katja M, SooHoo Megan, Mack Emily, Ricci Zaccaria, Kwiatkowski David M, Cooper David S, Krawczeski Catherine D, Alten Jeffrey A, Goldstein Stuart L, Basu Rajit K
2518University of Cincinnati School of Medicine, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
22095University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, 2932Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA.
World J Pediatr Congenit Heart Surg. 2022 Mar;13(2):196-202. doi: 10.1177/21501351211073615.
Reliable prediction of severe acute kidney injury (AKI) and related poor outcomes has the potential to optimize treatment. The purpose of this study was to modify the renal angina index in pediatric cardiac surgery to predict severe AKI and related poor outcomes. We performed a multicenter retrospective study with the population divided into a derivation and validation cohort to assess the performance of a modified renal angina index assessed at 8 h after cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) admission to predict a complex outcome of severe day 3 AKI or related poor outcomes (ventilation duration >7 days, CICU length of stay >14 days, and mortality). The derivation sample was used to determine the optimal cut-off value. There were 298 and 299 patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The incidence of severe day 3 AKI and the complex outcome was 1.7% and 28% in the derivation and validation cohort. The sensitivity analysis for fulfillment of renal angina was a score >8 with a sensitivity of 63%, specificity of 73%, and negative predictive value of 83%. The cardiac renal angina index predicted the composite outcome with an area under the curve of 0.7 (95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.78). Renal angina patients had a significantly higher probability of the complex outcome when compared to individual risk and injury categories. We operationalized the renal angina index for use after cardiac surgery. Further revision and modification of the construct with integration of biomarkers in a prospective cohort are necessary to refine the prediction model.
可靠地预测严重急性肾损伤(AKI)及相关不良结局有助于优化治疗。本研究旨在对小儿心脏手术中的肾绞痛指数进行改良,以预测严重AKI及相关不良结局。我们开展了一项多中心回顾性研究,将研究对象分为推导队列和验证队列,以评估在心脏重症监护病房(CICU)入院8小时时评估的改良肾绞痛指数预测术后第3天严重AKI或相关不良结局(通气时间>7天、CICU住院时间>14天和死亡率)这一复合结局的性能。推导样本用于确定最佳临界值。推导队列和验证队列分别有298例和299例患者。推导队列和验证队列中术后第3天严重AKI及复合结局的发生率分别为1.7%和28%。肾绞痛指数满足情况的敏感性分析显示,评分>8时,敏感性为63%,特异性为73%,阴性预测值为83%。心脏肾绞痛指数预测复合结局的曲线下面积为0.7(95%置信区间:0.62 - 0.78)。与个体风险和损伤类别相比,肾绞痛患者出现复合结局的概率显著更高。我们实施了心脏手术后使用的肾绞痛指数。有必要在前瞻性队列中进一步修订和完善该指标,并整合生物标志物以优化预测模型。