Fragasso Tiziana, Raggi Valeria, Passaro Davide, Tardella Luca, Lasinio Giovanna Jona, Ricci Zaccaria
Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, IRCCS, Piazza S.Onofrio 4, 00165, Rome, Italy.
Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza - University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
J Anesth Analg Crit Care. 2023 Oct 18;3(1):37. doi: 10.1186/s44158-023-00125-3.
BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is among the most common complications following cardiac surgery in adult and pediatric patients, significantly affecting morbidity and mortality. Artificial Intelligence (AI) with Machine Learning (ML) can be used to predict outcomes. AKI diagnosis anticipation may be an ideal target of these methods. The scope of the study is building a Machine Learning (ML) train model with Random Forest (RF) algorithm, based on electronic health record (EHR) data, able to forecast AKI continuously after 48 h in post-cardiac surgery children, and to test its performance. Four hundred nineteen consecutive patients out of 1115 hospital admissions were enrolled in a single-center retrospective study. Patients were younger than 18 years and admitted from August 2018 to February 2020 in a pediatric cardiac intensive care unit (PCICU) undergoing cardiac surgery, invasive procedure (hemodynamic studies), and medical conditions with complete EHR records and discharged after 48 h or more. RESULTS: Thirty-six variables were selected to build the algorithm according to commonly described cardiac surgery-associated AKI clinical predictors. We evaluated different models for different outcomes: binary AKI (no AKI vs. AKI), severe AKI (no-mild vs severe AKI), and multiclass classification (maximum AKI and the most frequent level of AKI, mode AKI). The algorithm performance was assessed with the area under the curve receiver operating characteristics (AUC ROC) for binary classification, with accuracy and K for multiclass classification. AUC ROC for binary AKI was 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.94), and for severe AKI was 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-1). Mode AKI accuracy was 0.95, and K was 0.80 (95% CI 0.94-0.96); maximum AKI accuracy was 0.92, and K was 0.71 (95% CI 0.91-0.93). The importance matrix plot demonstrated creatinine, basal creatinine, platelets count, adrenaline support, and lactate dehydrogenase for binary AKI with the addition of cardiopulmonary bypass duration for severe AKI as the most relevant variables of the model. CONCLUSIONS: We validated a ML model to detect AKI occurring after 48 h in a retrospective observational study that could help clinicians in individuating patients at risk of AKI, in which a preventive strategy can be determinant to improve the occurrence of renal dysfunction.
背景:急性肾损伤(AKI)是成人和儿童心脏手术后最常见的并发症之一,对发病率和死亡率有显著影响。人工智能(AI)与机器学习(ML)可用于预测结果。AKI诊断预测可能是这些方法的理想目标。本研究的范围是基于电子健康记录(EHR)数据构建一个采用随机森林(RF)算法的机器学习(ML)训练模型,该模型能够在心脏手术后的儿童中连续48小时后预测AKI,并测试其性能。在1115例住院患者中,连续纳入419例患者进行单中心回顾性研究。患者年龄小于18岁,于2018年8月至2020年2月入住儿科心脏重症监护病房(PCICU),接受心脏手术、侵入性操作(血流动力学研究),且有完整的EHR记录,并在48小时或更长时间后出院。 结果:根据常见的心脏手术相关AKI临床预测因素,选择36个变量来构建算法。我们针对不同结果评估了不同模型:二元AKI(无AKI与AKI)、重度AKI(无轻度与重度AKI)以及多类分类(最大AKI和最常见的AKI水平,即模式AKI)。对于二元分类,算法性能通过曲线下面积接受者操作特征(AUC ROC)进行评估,对于多类分类则通过准确率和K值进行评估。二元AKI的AUC ROC为0.93(95%CI 0.92 - 0.94),重度AKI的AUC ROC为0.99(95%CI 0.98 - 1)。模式AKI的准确率为0.95,K值为0.80(95%CI 0.94 - 0.96);最大AKI的准确率为0.92,K值为0.71(95%CI 0.91 - 0.93)。重要性矩阵图显示,对于二元AKI,肌酐、基础肌酐、血小板计数、肾上腺素支持和乳酸脱氢酶,对于重度AKI,再加上体外循环持续时间,是模型中最相关的变量。 结论:在一项回顾性观察研究中,我们验证了一个ML模型来检测48小时后发生的AKI,这有助于临床医生识别有AKI风险的患者,在这种情况下,预防策略对于改善肾功能障碍的发生可能起决定性作用。
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