Zhang Y, Granger S J, Semenov M A, Upadhayay H R, Collins A L
Sustainable Agriculture Sciences, Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, EX20 2SB, UK.
Plant Sciences Department, Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UK.
J Clean Prod. 2022 Mar 1;338:130633. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.130633.
Periods of extreme wet-weather elevate agricultural diffuse water pollutant loads and climate projections for the UK suggest wetter winters. Within this context, we monitored nitrate and suspended sediment loss using a field and landscape scale platform in SW England during the recent extreme wet-weather of 2019-2020. We compared the recent extreme wet-weather period to both the climatic baseline (1981-2010) and projected near- (2041-2060) and far- (2071-2090) future climates, using the 95th percentiles of conventional rainfall indices generated for climate scenarios downscaled by the LARS-WG weather generator from the 19 global climate models in the CMIP5 ensemble for the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Finally, we explored relationships between pollutant loss and the rainfall indices. Grassland field-scale monthly average nitrate losses increased from 0.39-1.07 kg ha (2016-2019) to 0.70-1.35 kg ha (2019-2020), whereas losses from grassland ploughed up for cereals, increased from 0.63-0.83 kg ha to 2.34-4.09 kg ha. Nitrate losses at landscape scale increased during the 2019-2020 extreme wet-weather period to 2.04-4.54 kg ha. Field-scale grassland monthly average sediment losses increased from 92-116 kg ha (2016-2019) to 281-333 kg ha (2019-2020), whereas corresponding losses from grassland converted to cereal production increased from 63-80 kg ha to 2124-2146 kg ha. Landscape scale monthly sediment losses increased from 8-37 kg ha in 2018 to between 15 and 173 kg ha during the 2019-2020 wet-weather period. 2019-2020 was most representative of the forecast 95th percentiles of >1 mm rainfall for near- and far-future climates and this rainfall index was related to monitored sediment, but not nitrate, loss. The elevated suspended sediment loads generated by the extreme wet-weather of 2019-2020 therefore potentially provide some insight into the responses to the projected >1 mm rainfall extremes under future climates at the study location.
极端潮湿天气时期会增加农业面源水污染物负荷，而英国的气候预测显示冬季将更加潮湿。在此背景下，我们在2019 - 2020年最近的极端潮湿天气期间，利用英格兰西南部的一个田间和景观尺度平台监测了硝酸盐和悬浮泥沙流失情况。我们将最近的极端潮湿天气时期与气候基线（1981 - 2010年）以及预计的近期（2041 - 2060年）和远期（2071 - 2090年）未来气候进行了比较，使用了由LARS - WG天气发生器对CMIP5集合中19个全球气候模型针对RCP8.5排放情景进行降尺度处理后生成的常规降雨指数的第95百分位数。最后，我们探究了污染物流失与降雨指数之间的关系。草地田间尺度的月平均硝酸盐流失量从2016 - 2019年的0.39 - 1.07千克/公顷增加到2019 - 2020年的0.70 - 1.35千克/公顷，而翻耕种植谷物的草地流失量从0.63 - 0.83千克/公顷增加到2.34 - 4.09千克/公顷。2019 - 2020年极端潮湿天气期间，景观尺度的硝酸盐流失量增加到2.04 - 4.54千克/公顷。田间尺度草地的月平均泥沙流失量从2016 - 2019年的92 - 116千克/公顷增加到2019 - 2020年的281 - 333千克/公顷，而转为谷物生产的草地相应流失量从63 - 80千克/公顷增加到2124 - 2146千克/公顷。景观尺度的月泥沙流失量从2018年的8 - 37千克/公顷增加到2019 - 2020年潮湿天气期间的15至173千克/公顷。2019 - 2020年最能代表近期和远期气候中预测的大于1毫米降雨量的第95百分位数，且该降雨指数与监测到的泥沙流失有关，但与硝酸盐流失无关。因此，2019 - 2020年极端潮湿天气产生的悬浮泥沙负荷增加，可能为研究地点未来气候下对预测的大于1毫米极端降雨的响应提供一些见解。
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