Institute of Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Program in Earth, Energy, and Sustainability, LUC The Hague, Leiden University, the Netherlands.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Oct 20;844:157212. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157212. Epub 2022 Jul 7.
Global climate change is manifest by local-scale changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, including the frequency of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs are associated with a myriad range of adverse environmental and societal consequences, including negative impacts to agriculture and food production. This study focuses on EWEs and their effect on adaptation strategies by potato and onion farmers in Zeeland, a Dutch coastal province in the Rhine delta that can serve as a model for other intensive agricultural landscapes in industrialized nations impacted by extreme weather events. The research approach combines quantitative trend analysis of long-term climatic data (temperature, precipitation) with a formal survey of Zeelandic farmers to statistically test four specific hypotheses regarding the frequency of EWEs in the Netherlands and farmer awareness and adaptation. Trend analyses reveal a strong (statistically significant) increase in extreme heat, a small increase in extreme rainfall and drought, and a strong decrease in frost occurrence. Survey results indicate Zeelandic farmers perceive high risk and awareness of changes to the frequency of EWEs. Many farmers have experienced financial losses from EWEs, particularly between 2017 and 2020. For extreme heat, droughts, and frost, the proportion of farmers that incurred financial damages annually is statistically correlated to the actual occurrence of EWEs. Farmers who incurred more financial losses between 2000 and 2020 due to heat and lack of frost had a higher risk perception of these extremes. Further, almost all farmers have already implemented one or more adaptation strategies. A third of surveyed farmers reduced or stopped with potato and onion cultivation in response to climate change and EWEs. Awareness, exposure to, and risk perception of EWEs contribute to adaptation support by farmers. The high perceived risk of climate change and EWEs among respondents and the high incidence of financial losses from extremes in the past two decades highlights the importance of adaptation in the agricultural sector, including in temperate regions where growing seasons are expanding. Study results support the current 'Rural Development Program' and future 'National Strategic Plan' policies in the Netherlands, both part of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), that provides accessibility to adaptation measures for farmers to avoid financial loss.
全球气候变化表现为降水和温度模式的地方尺度变化，包括极端天气事件 (EWEs) 的频率。EWEs 与一系列环境和社会负面影响有关，包括对农业和粮食生产的负面影响。本研究重点关注 EWEs 及其对泽兰土豆和洋葱种植者适应策略的影响，泽兰是荷兰莱茵河三角洲的一个沿海省份，可以作为受极端天气事件影响的其他工业化国家密集农业景观的模型。研究方法结合了长期气候数据（温度、降水）的定量趋势分析和对泽兰农民的正式调查，以统计检验关于荷兰 EWEs 频率以及农民意识和适应的四个具体假设。趋势分析显示，极端高温呈强劲（统计学上显著）上升趋势，极端降雨和干旱略有增加，霜期大幅减少。调查结果表明，泽兰农民认为 EWEs 的频率变化风险高且有感知。许多农民因 EWEs 遭受了经济损失，尤其是在 2017 年至 2020 年期间。对于极端高温、干旱和霜期，每年遭受经济损失的农民比例与实际 EWEs 发生情况呈统计学相关。2000 年至 2020 年期间因高温和缺乏霜期而遭受更多经济损失的农民对这些极端情况的风险感知更高。此外，几乎所有农民都已经实施了一项或多项适应策略。三分之一的受调查农民因气候变化和 EWEs 减少或停止了土豆和洋葱种植。对 EWEs 的认识、暴露程度和风险感知有助于农民的适应支持。受访者对气候变化和 EWEs 的高感知风险以及过去二十年极端天气事件导致的高经济损失发生率凸显了农业部门适应的重要性，包括在季节不断延长的温带地区。研究结果支持荷兰当前的“农村发展计划”和未来的“国家战略计划”政策，这两个政策都是欧盟共同农业政策 (CAP) 的一部分，为农民提供了获得适应措施的机会，以避免经济损失。
