Quatto Piero, Ripamonti Enrico, Marasini Donata
Department of Economics, Management and Statistics, Statistical Section, University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy.
Milan Center of Neuroscience, University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy.
J Biopharm Stat. 2022 Mar;32(2):308-329. doi: 10.1080/10543406.2021.2009497. Epub 2022 Mar 4.
This paper reviews recent contributions from a Bayesian-oriented perspective, after the ASA statement on p-values (2016). We classify proposals that (i) supplement the p-value; (ii) modify the p-value itself. In the first group, we review the Bayes factor, the False Positive risk, the rejection odds and the analysis of credibility from both Matthews' and Held's point of view. We also put forth and discuss a new index of credibility, about which we conduct a delimited simulation study. In the second group, we discuss Gannon's modification of the p-value based on the Bayes factor and the second-generation p-value. The theory is illustrated with two case studies on pharmacotherapy in infectious diseases. Contemporary authors still refer to the p-value as a statistical indicator but have abandoned the perspective of evaluating p-values with fixed thresholds. Statistical societies worldwide should target new strategies to disseminate the debate on p-values in all applied fields of knowledge, as well as they may promote the use of different statistical procedures to supplement p-values.
在美国统计协会发布关于p值的声明（2016年）之后，本文从贝叶斯导向的视角回顾了近期的相关研究成果。我们将相关提议分为两类：（i）对p值进行补充；（ii）对p值本身进行修正。在第一类中，我们从马修斯和赫尔德的观点出发，回顾了贝叶斯因子、假阳性风险、拒绝率以及可信度分析。我们还提出并讨论了一种新的可信度指标，并针对此进行了限定范围的模拟研究。在第二类中，我们讨论了基于贝叶斯因子的甘农对p值的修正以及第二代p值。通过两个传染病药物治疗案例研究对该理论进行了阐释。当代作者仍将p值作为一种统计指标，但已摒弃了用固定阈值评估p值的观点。全球统计协会应制定新策略，在所有应用知识领域传播关于p值的讨论，同时也可促进使用不同的统计程序来补充p值。
