Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Science, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
EnergyVille, Genk, Belgium.
Nat Commun. 2022 Mar 4;13(1):1165. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-28398-2.
The EU emissions trading system's (ETS) invalidation rule implies that shocks and overlapping policies can change cumulative carbon emissions. This paper explains these mechanisms and simulates the effect of COVID-19, the European Green Deal, and the recovery stimulus package on cumulative EU ETS emissions and allowance prices. Our results indicate that the negative demand shock of the pandemic should have a limited effect on allowance prices and rather translates into lower cumulative carbon emissions. Aligning EU ETS with the 2030 reduction target of -55% might increase allowance prices to 45-94 €/ton CO today and reduce cumulative carbon emissions to 14.2-18.3 GtCO compared to 23.5-33.1 GtCO under a -40% 2030 reduction target. Our results crucially depend on when the waterbed will be sealed again, which is an endogenous market outcome, driven by the EU ETS design, shocks and overlapping climate policies such as the recovery plan.
欧盟排放交易体系（ETS）的失效规则意味着冲击和重叠政策可以改变累计碳排放量。本文解释了这些机制，并模拟了 COVID-19、欧洲绿色协议和复苏刺激计划对欧盟 ETS 累计排放和配额价格的影响。我们的结果表明，大流行的负需求冲击对配额价格的影响应该有限，而更倾向于转化为更低的累计碳排放量。将欧盟 ETS 与 2030 年减排目标-55% 相协调，可能会导致今天的配额价格上涨至 45-94 欧元/吨 CO2，与 2030 年减排目标为-40%相比，累计碳排放量减少到 14.2-18.3GtCO2。我们的结果取决于水床何时再次被密封，这是一个内生的市场结果，由欧盟 ETS 设计、冲击和重叠的气候政策（如复苏计划）驱动。
