National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS), University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.
Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 8;12(1):4108. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07962-2.
The modern world involves both increasingly frequent introduction of novel invasive animals into new habitat ranges and novel epidemic-causing pathogens into new host populations. Both of these phenomena have been well studied. Less well explored, however, is how the success of species invasions may themselves be affected by the pathogens they bring with them. In this paper, we construct a simple, modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for a vector-borne pathogen affecting two annually reproducing hosts. We consider an invasion scenario in which a susceptible native host species is invaded by a disease-resistant species carrying a vector-borne infection. We assume the presence of abundant, but previously disease-free, competent vectors. We find that the success of invasion is critically sensitive to the infectivity of the pathogen. The more the pathogen is able to spread, the more fit the invasive host is in competition with the more vulnerable native species; the pathogen acts as a 'wingman pathogen,' enhancing the probability of invader establishment. While not surprising, we provide a quantitative predictive framework for the long-term outcomes from these important coupled dynamics in a world in which compound invasions of hosts and pathogens are increasingly likely.
现代世界既涉及到越来越频繁地将新型入侵动物引入新的栖息地范围，也涉及到新型传染病病原体进入新的宿主种群。这两种现象都得到了很好的研究。然而，人们对物种入侵的成功如何受到它们带来的病原体的影响研究得还不够充分。在本文中，我们构建了一个简单的、改良的媒介传播病原体的易感-感染-恢复模型，该模型影响着两种一年生繁殖的宿主。我们考虑了一个入侵场景，即一种易感的本地宿主物种被一种携带媒介传播感染的抗疾病物种入侵。我们假设存在大量但以前无病的有能力的媒介。我们发现，入侵的成功对病原体的传染性高度敏感。病原体传播能力越强，入侵宿主在与更脆弱的本地物种的竞争中就越适应；病原体充当了一个“僚机病原体”，增加了入侵者建立的可能性。虽然这并不令人惊讶，但我们为在一个越来越可能发生宿主和病原体复合入侵的世界中，从这些重要的耦合动力学中获得长期结果提供了一个定量预测框架。
