Marini Giovanni, Rosá Roberto, Pugliese Andrea, Heesterbeek Hans
Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, TN, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, via Sommarive 14, 38123 Povo, Trento, Italy.
Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, TN, Italy.
J Theor Biol. 2017 Feb 21;415:58-69. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.12.009. Epub 2016 Dec 13.
In this study, we develop a model to investigate how ecological factors might affect the dynamics of a vector-borne pathogen in a population composed by different hosts which interact with each other. Specifically, we consider the case when different host species compete with each other, as they share the same habitat, and the vector might have different feeding preference, which can also be time dependent. As a prototypical example, we apply our model to study the invasion and spread, during a typical season, of West Nile virus in an ecosystem composed of two competent avian host species and possibly of dead-end host species. We found that competition and vector feeding preferences can profoundly influence pathogen invasion, influencing its probability to start an epidemic, and influencing transmission rates. Finally, when considering time-dependent feeding preferences, as observed in the field, we noted that the virus circulation could be amplified and that the timing of epidemic peaks could be changed. Our work highlights that ecological interactions between hosts can have a profound influence on the dynamics of the pathogen and that, when modeling vector-borne infections, vector feeding behavior should, for this reason, be carefully evaluated.
在本研究中，我们开发了一个模型来研究生态因素如何影响由相互作用的不同宿主组成的种群中媒介传播病原体的动态。具体而言，我们考虑不同宿主物种相互竞争的情况，因为它们共享同一栖息地，并且媒介可能具有不同的摄食偏好，这种偏好也可能随时间变化。作为一个典型例子，我们应用我们的模型来研究西尼罗河病毒在一个由两种易感鸟类宿主物种以及可能的终末宿主物种组成的生态系统中，在一个典型季节内的入侵和传播。我们发现竞争和媒介摄食偏好会深刻影响病原体的入侵，影响其引发疫情的概率以及传播速率。最后，当考虑到在实地观察到的随时间变化的摄食偏好时，我们注意到病毒传播可能会加剧，并且疫情高峰的时间可能会改变。我们的工作强调宿主之间的生态相互作用会对病原体的动态产生深远影响，因此在对媒介传播感染进行建模时，应仔细评估媒介的摄食行为。
