Department of Sociology, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO, USA.
Demography. 2022 Apr 1;59(2):563-585. doi: 10.1215/00703370-9807961.
The relationship between mortality and fertility is a key component of demographic transition theory, placing it at the center of extensive inquiry. Among other linkages, mortality in women's communities and social networks influences their subsequent fertility. Existing demographic research assumes this is principally due to volitional mechanisms, implying that exposure to mortality consolidates women's desire to become pregnant, leading to intended fertility. Yet, insights from other disciplines suggest that mortality exposure could also increase women's unintended fertility through psychological, relational, and behavioral mechanisms. This study examines the relationships between network mortality exposure and women's hazard of pregnancy, and of unintended pregnancy specifically. We analyze two years (2009-2011) of closely spaced panel data on young Malawian women (N=1,272) enrolled in the Tsogolo la Thanzi study. Our data include information on funeral attendance and fertility desires measured weeks before conception, which is confirmed through frequent pregnancy testing. Hazard models show that the number of funerals women attend corresponds with a higher hazard of pregnancy and of unintended pregnancy specifically. These findings make clear that mortality exposure can influence fertility not by shaping women's desires but by disrupting the realization of those desires.
死亡率和生育率之间的关系是人口转变理论的一个关键组成部分，也是广泛研究的核心。除其他联系外，妇女所在社区和社交网络中的死亡率会影响她们随后的生育率。现有的人口研究假设这主要是由于自愿机制，这意味着死亡率的暴露会巩固妇女怀孕的愿望，从而导致预期的生育率。然而，来自其他学科的观点表明，死亡率的暴露也可能通过心理、关系和行为机制增加妇女意外的生育率。本研究考察了网络死亡率暴露与妇女怀孕风险以及意外怀孕风险之间的关系。我们分析了两年（2009-2011 年）在马拉维年轻妇女中进行的紧密间隔的面板数据（N=1,272），这些妇女参加了 Tsogolo la Thanzi 研究。我们的数据包括葬礼出席情况和怀孕前几周测量的生育愿望信息，这些信息通过频繁的怀孕测试得到证实。风险模型显示，妇女参加葬礼的次数与怀孕风险以及意外怀孕风险呈正相关。这些发现清楚地表明，死亡率的暴露不是通过塑造妇女的愿望，而是通过干扰这些愿望的实现来影响生育率。
