Copeland William E, Tong Guangyu, Gifford Elizabeth J, Easter Michele M, Shanahan Lilly, Swartz Marvin S, Swanson Jeffrey W
Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, USA.
Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Duke University Medical Center, Wilson Center for Science and Justice, Duke School of Law, Durham, NC, USA.
Psychol Med. 2023 Jun;53(8):3711-3718. doi: 10.1017/S0033291722000393. Epub 2022 Mar 10.
The juvenile justice system in the USA adjudicates over seven hundred thousand youth in the USA annually with significant behavioral offenses. This study aimed to test the effect of juvenile justice involvement on adult criminal outcomes.
Analyses were based on a prospective, population-based study of 1420 children followed up to eight times during childhood (ages 9-16; 6674 observations) about juvenile justice involvement in the late 1990 and early 2000s. Participants were followed up years later to assess adult criminality, using self-report and official records. A propensity score (i.e. inverse probability) weighting approach was used that approximated an experimental design by balancing potentially confounding characteristics between children with without juvenile justice involvement.
Between-groups differences on variables that elicit a juvenile justice referral (e.g. violence, property offenses, status offenses, and substance misuse) were attenuated after applying propensity-based inverse probability weights. Participants with a history of juvenile justice involvement were more likely to have later official and violent felony charges, and to self-report police contact and spending time in jail (ORs from 2.5 to 3.3). Residential juvenile justice involvement was associated with the highest risk of both, later official criminal records and self-reported criminality (ORs from 5.1 to 14.5). Sensitivity analyses suggest that our findings are likely robust to potential unobserved confounders.
Juvenile justice involvement was associated with increased risk of adult criminality, with residential services associated with highest risk. Juvenile justice involvement may catalyze rather than deter from adult offending.
美国的少年司法系统每年对超过七十万犯有严重行为罪行的美国青少年进行审判。本研究旨在检验少年司法介入对成人犯罪结果的影响。
分析基于一项前瞻性的、以人群为基础的研究，该研究对1420名儿童进行了跟踪，在其童年时期（9至16岁；共6674次观察）对他们在20世纪90年代末和21世纪初的少年司法介入情况进行了八次跟踪。数年后对参与者进行随访，通过自我报告和官方记录评估成人犯罪情况。采用倾向得分（即逆概率）加权方法，通过平衡有或没有少年司法介入的儿童之间潜在的混杂特征，近似于实验设计。
在应用基于倾向得分的逆概率权重后，引发少年司法转介的变量（如暴力、财产犯罪、身份犯罪和药物滥用）的组间差异有所减弱。有少年司法介入史的参与者更有可能随后面临官方的暴力重罪指控，更有可能自我报告与警方有接触以及在监狱服刑（比值比从2.5到3.3）。寄宿式少年司法介入与随后出现官方犯罪记录和自我报告犯罪的最高风险相关（比值比从5.1到14.5）。敏感性分析表明，我们的研究结果可能对潜在的未观察到的混杂因素具有稳健性。
少年司法介入与成人犯罪风险增加相关，寄宿式服务相关风险最高。少年司法介入可能会促使而非阻止成人犯罪。
