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基于Joinpoint回归模型的2004年至2020年江西省鄱阳县血吸虫病流行趋势

[Epidemiological trends of schistosomiasis in Poyang County of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2020 based on the Joinpoint regression model].

作者信息

Wu X H, Wu J, Xu R M, Xiong Y, Chen Z

机构信息

Poyang County Station of Schistosomiasis Control, Shangrao, Jiangxi 333100, China.

Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Schistosomiasis Prevention and Control, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330000, China.

出版信息

Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi. 2022 Feb 16;34(1):7-15. doi: 10.16250/j.32.1374.2021200.

DOI:10.16250/j.32.1374.2021200
PMID:35266352
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the dynamic changes of schistosomiasis in Poyang County of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2020, so as to provide insight into the development of the schistosomiasis elimination strategy.

METHODS

Schistosomiasis control data were captured from Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and the epidemiological data of schistosomiasis were collected from national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Poyang County from 2005 to 2020. The endemic status of schistosomiasis was analyzed in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and a Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to investigate the trends of schistosomiasis in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020.

RESULTS

The sero-prevalence and egg-prevalence of human infections reduced from 24.39% (24 976/102 397) and 4.53% (259/5 721) in 2004 to 5.37% (2 421/45 100) [annual percent change (APC) = average annual percent change (AAPC) = -8.64%] and 0 (0/3 963) in 2020 (APC = AAPC = -32.07%) in Poyang County, and the trends were both significant (both < 0.01). The sero-prevalence of infections reduced from 1.21% (294/24 332) in bovines in 2013 to 0.58% (35/5 999) in 2020 in Poyang County, with one turning point (AAPC = -8.20%, > 0.05). There were no townships or villages with emerging snail habitats in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and there were three turning points of trend in the proportion of snail areas detected in total snail areas (AAPC = -2.30%, > 0.01). The sero-prevalence and adjusted prevalence of infections reduced from 60.82% (742/1 220) and 10.16% (124/1 220) in local residents in 2005 to 5.73% (70/1 221) and 0 in 2020 in national schistosomiasis surveillance sites of Poyang County, and the trends for sero-prevalence (APC = AAPC = 17.47%, < 0.01) and adjusted prevalence of infections (APC = AAPC = -44.92%, < 0.01) were both statistically significant. infections were identified in 10 (2005) and 2 local livestock (2007), with prevalence of 10.00% (10/100) and 13.33% (2/15), respectively, and infections were detected in snails in 2008 and 2009; however, no positive samples of mixed were detected by loop-mediated isothermal amplification.

CONCLUSIONS

The endemic situation of schistosomiasis control had remarkably reduced in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020; however, there are still challenges for consolidating schistosomiasis control achievements and even elimination of schistosomiasis.

摘要

目的

分析2004年至2020年江西省鄱阳县血吸虫病的动态变化,为深入了解血吸虫病消除策略的发展提供依据。

方法

收集2004年至2020年鄱阳县血吸虫病防治数据,以及2005年至2020年鄱阳县国家级血吸虫病监测点的血吸虫病流行病学数据。分析2004年至2020年鄱阳县血吸虫病的流行状况,并进行Joinpoint回归分析,以研究2004年至2020年鄱阳县血吸虫病的流行趋势。

结果

鄱阳县人群感染的血清学阳性率和粪检阳性率分别从2004年的24.39%(24 976/102 397)和4.53%(259/5 721)降至2020年的5.37%(2 421/45 100)[年变化百分比(APC)=平均年变化百分比(AAPC)=-8.64%]和0(0/3 963)(APC = AAPC = -32.07%),且趋势均具有统计学意义(均P<0.01)。鄱阳县牛感染的血清学阳性率从2013年的1.21%(294/24 332)降至2020年的0.58%(35/5 999),有1个转折点(AAPC = -8.20%,P>0.05)。2004年至2020年鄱阳县无新出现螺点的乡镇或村庄,查出螺面积占总螺面积比例的趋势有3个转折点(AAPC = -2.30%,P>0.01)。鄱阳县国家级血吸虫病监测点当地居民感染的血清学阳性率和校正阳性率分别从2005年的60.82%(742/1 220)和10.16%(124/1 220)降至2020年的5.73%(70/1 221)和0,血清学阳性率(APC = AAPC = 17.47%,P<0.01)和感染校正阳性率(APC = AAPC = -44.92%,P<0.01)的趋势均具有统计学意义。2005年在10头(只)家畜中查出感染10头(只),感染率为10.00%(10/100),2007年在15头(只)家畜中查出感染2头(只),感染率为13.33%(2/15),2008年和2009年在钉螺中检出感染;但环介导等温扩增法未检出混合感染阳性样本。

结论

2004年至2020年鄱阳县血吸虫病防治流行状况显著下降;然而,巩固血吸虫病防治成果乃至消除血吸虫病仍面临挑战。

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