Xiao Y, Zhong C H, Wei F H, Dai L F, Yang J J, Chen Y Y
Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, China.
Zhongguo Xue Xi Chong Bing Fang Zhi Za Zhi. 2022 Apr 15;34(2):122-127. doi: 10.16250/j.32.1374.2022011.
To analyze the trends of human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province.
All data pertaining to human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province were collected from 2004 to 2018, and the trends for changes in seroprevalence, egg-positive rate and prevalence of human infection were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model.
Both of the numbers of residents seropositive and egg-positive for infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence of human infections reduced from 6.85% in 2004 to 0 in 2018. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the prevalence of human infections appeared an overall tendency towards a reduction in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 [average annual percent change (AAPC) = -24.1%, < 0.01], and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2006 [annual percent change (APC) = -35.1%, < 0.01] and from 2006 to 2018 (APC = -22.1%, < 0.01). The prevalence of human infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in islet (AAPC = -25.1%, < 0.01), inner embankment (AAPC = -26.4%, < 0.01) and hilly subtypes of schistosomiasis-endemic areas (AAPC = -32.5%, < 0.01) of Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence all appeared a tendency towards a decline during the infection control stage (from 2004 to 2008), the transmission control stage (from 2009 to 2013) and the transmission interruption stage (from 2014 to 2018) (AAPC = -28.0%, -24.4% and -63.8%, all values < 0.01). The seroprevalence of human infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = -14.5%, < 0.01), and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2012 (APC = -8.4%, < 0.01) and from 2012 to 2018 (APC = -22.1%, < 0.01). In addition, the egg-positive rate of human infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = -30.6%, < 0.05), and the trend for the reduction was significant during the period from 2007 to 2014 (APC = -15.5%, < 0.01).
The prevalence of human schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the islet and inner embankment subtypes of endemic areas are a high priority for schistosomiasis control during the stage moving towards elimination in Hubei Province.
分析2004 - 2018年湖北省人群血吸虫病流行趋势，为制定全省血吸虫病消除策略提供依据。
收集2004 - 2018年湖北省人群血吸虫病流行的所有数据，采用Joinpoint回归模型分析血清学阳性率、粪检阳性率及人群感染率的变化趋势。
2004 - 2018年湖北省居民血吸虫感染血清学阳性和粪检阳性人数均呈下降趋势，人群感染率由2004年的6.85%降至2018年的0。Joinpoint回归分析显示，2004 - 2018年湖北省人群血吸虫感染率总体呈下降趋势[平均年变化百分比（AAPC）=-24.1%，P<0.01]，在2004 - 2006年[年变化百分比（APC）=-35.1%，P<0.01]和2006 - 2018年（APC=-22.1%，P<0.01）下降趋势均有统计学意义。2004 - 2018年湖北省湖沼型（AAPC=-25.1%，P<0.01）、垸内型（AAPC=-26.4%，P<0.01）和山丘型血吸虫病流行区人群感染率呈下降趋势，在传染源控制阶段（2004 - 2008年）、传播控制阶段（2009 - 2013年）和传播阻断阶段（2014 - 2018年）感染率均呈下降趋势（AAPC=-28.0%、-24.4%和-63.8%，P值均<0.01）。2004 - 2018年湖北省人群血吸虫感染血清学阳性率总体呈下降趋势（AAPC=-14.5%，P<0.01），在2004 - 2012年（APC=-8.4%，P<0.01）和2012 - 2018年（APC=-22.1%，P<0.01）下降趋势均有统计学意义。此外，2004 - 2018年湖北省人群血吸虫感染粪检阳性率总体呈下降趋势（AAPC=-30.6%，P<0.05），在2007 - 2014年下降趋势有统计学意义（APC=-15.5%，P<0.01）。
2004 - 2018年湖北省人群血吸虫病流行呈下降趋势，湖沼型和垸内型流行区是湖北省血吸虫病消除阶段防控重点。
