[Epidemiological trends for human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 based on Joinpoint regression analysis].

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the trends of human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province.

METHODS

All data pertaining to human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province were collected from 2004 to 2018, and the trends for changes in seroprevalence, egg-positive rate and prevalence of human infection were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model.

RESULTS

Both of the numbers of residents seropositive and egg-positive for infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence of human infections reduced from 6.85% in 2004 to 0 in 2018. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the prevalence of human infections appeared an overall tendency towards a reduction in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 [average annual percent change (AAPC) = -24.1%, < 0.01], and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2006 [annual percent change (APC) = -35.1%, < 0.01] and from 2006 to 2018 (APC = -22.1%, < 0.01). The prevalence of human infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in islet (AAPC = -25.1%, < 0.01), inner embankment (AAPC = -26.4%, < 0.01) and hilly subtypes of schistosomiasis-endemic areas (AAPC = -32.5%, < 0.01) of Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence all appeared a tendency towards a decline during the infection control stage (from 2004 to 2008), the transmission control stage (from 2009 to 2013) and the transmission interruption stage (from 2014 to 2018) (AAPC = -28.0%, -24.4% and -63.8%, all values < 0.01). The seroprevalence of human infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = -14.5%, < 0.01), and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2012 (APC = -8.4%, < 0.01) and from 2012 to 2018 (APC = -22.1%, < 0.01). In addition, the egg-positive rate of human infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = -30.6%, < 0.05), and the trend for the reduction was significant during the period from 2007 to 2014 (APC = -15.5%, < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of human schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the islet and inner embankment subtypes of endemic areas are a high priority for schistosomiasis control during the stage moving towards elimination in Hubei Province.