Faculty of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka, 816-8580, Japan.
Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka, 816-8580, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 10;12(1):3957. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07985-9.
We present the pair approximation models for susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics in a sparse network based on a regular network. Two processes are considered, namely, a Markovian process with a constant recovery rate and a non-Markovian process with a fixed recovery time. We derive the implicit analytical expression for the final epidemic size and explicitly show the epidemic threshold in both Markovian and non-Markovian processes. As the connection rate decreases from the original network connection, the epidemic threshold in which epidemic phase transits from disease-free to endemic increases, and the final epidemic size decreases. Additionally, for comparison with sparse and heterogeneous networks, the pair approximation models were applied to a heterogeneous network with a degree distribution. The obtained phase diagram reveals that, upon increasing the degree of the original random regular networks and decreasing the effective connections by introducing void nodes accordingly, the final epidemic size of the sparse network is close to that of the random network with average degree of 4. Thus, introducing the void nodes in the network leads to more heterogeneous network and reduces the final epidemic size.
我们提出了基于规则网络的稀疏网络中易感染-感染-恢复(SIR)传染病动力学的配对近似模型。考虑了两种过程,即具有恒定恢复率的马尔可夫过程和具有固定恢复时间的非马尔可夫过程。我们推导出了最终疫情规模的隐式解析表达式,并在马尔可夫和非马尔可夫过程中明确显示了疫情阈值。随着连接率从原始网络连接率降低,传染病从无病到地方病传播的疫情阈值增加,最终疫情规模减小。此外,为了与稀疏和异质网络进行比较,将配对近似模型应用于具有度分布的异质网络。得到的相图表明,随着原始随机规则网络的度增加,并通过引入空节点相应地减少有效连接,稀疏网络的最终疫情规模接近平均度为 4 的随机网络的最终疫情规模。因此,在网络中引入空节点会导致网络更加异质,从而降低最终的疫情规模。