Arefin Md Rajib, Masaki Tanaka, Kabir K M Ariful, Tanimoto Jun
Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka 816-8580, Japan.
Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
Proc Math Phys Eng Sci. 2019 Dec;475(2232):20190608. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2019.0608. Epub 2019 Dec 18.
Pre-emptive vaccination is regarded as one of the most protective measures to control influenza outbreak. There are mainly two types of influenza viruses-influenza A and B with several subtypes-that are commonly found to circulate among humans. The traditional trivalent (TIV) flu vaccine targets two strains of influenza A and one strain of influenza B. The quadrivalent (QIV) vaccine targets one extra B virus strain that ensures better protection against influenza; however, the use of QIV vaccine can be costly, hence impose an extra financial burden to society. This scenario might create a dilemma in choosing vaccine types at the individual level. This article endeavours to explain such a dilemma through the framework of a vaccination game, where individuals can opt for one of the three options: choose either of QIV or TIV vaccine or none. Our approach presumes a mean-field framework of a vaccination game in an infinite and well-mixed population, entangling the disease spreading process of influenza with the coevolution of two types of vaccination decision-making processes taking place before an epidemic season. We conduct a series of numerical simulations as an attempt to illustrate different scenarios. The framework has been validated by the so-called multi-agent simulation (MAS) approach.
预防性疫苗接种被视为控制流感爆发的最具保护性的措施之一。主要有两种流感病毒——甲型流感病毒和乙型流感病毒,它们有多个亚型,通常在人类中传播。传统的三价流感疫苗针对两种甲型流感病毒株和一种乙型流感病毒株。四价流感疫苗针对额外一种乙型病毒株,可确保对流感有更好的防护;然而,使用四价流感疫苗成本可能很高,因此会给社会带来额外的经济负担。这种情况可能会在个人层面造成选择疫苗类型的两难困境。本文试图通过一个疫苗接种博弈框架来解释这种两难困境,在这个框架中,个人可以选择三种选项之一:选择四价或三价流感疫苗,或者都不选。我们的方法假定在一个无限且充分混合的人群中存在一个疫苗接种博弈的平均场框架,将流感的疾病传播过程与在流行季节之前发生的两种疫苗接种决策过程的共同演化联系起来。我们进行了一系列数值模拟,试图说明不同的情况。该框架已通过所谓的多智能体模拟(MAS)方法得到验证。