Influence of weather conditions and projected climate change scenarios on the suitability of Vitis vinifera cv. Carignan in Rioja DOCa, Spain.

Grape development and its quality are highly dependent on soil and weather conditions. Under the progressive warming, which can affect the suitability of typical varieties grown in a given area, the knowledge of the vine response to changes in climate is essential to stablish strategies to maintain the viticulture sector. This research presents an analysis of phenology and grape composition of the Carignan cultivar, during a 13-year period, at two locations in Rioja DOCa. Based on the results obtained and the projected changes in climate under climate change scenarios (RC4.5 and RCP8.5), the response of this cultivar was evaluated. Differences in the phenological dates of up to 18, 29 and 40 days, for flowering, veraison and harvest, respectively, were observed between the warmest and the coolest years. An advance of up to 5, 8 and 11 days, respectively, for the mentioned stages, is projected under the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050, which could be near 1.5*times higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. These advances will be mainly driven by the temperatures recorded in the previous period. Grape acidity was mainly driven by water availability, in particular during ripening, which imply a slight projected reduction due to precipitation changes but not significant effect due to increasing temperatures. The phenolic composition could be positively affected by increasing temperatures and increasing water deficits, since this variety does not always reach a complete maturity at present. Thus, under the projected warming scenarios, the suitability of Carignan in Rioja DOCa was confirmed.