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时间偏好的跨期选择中的取消启发式会改变人们的时间偏好。

The cancellation heuristic in intertemporal choice shifts people's time preferences.

机构信息

Alfred Weber Institute of Economics, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.

Industrial Economics Department, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Mar 17;12(1):4627. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07906-w.

Abstract

Building on past research in risky decision making, the present research investigated whether the cancellation heuristic is evident in intertemporal choice. Specifically, the cancellation heuristic posits that whenever choice options are partitioned into multiple components, people ignore seemingly identical components and compare the non-identical components. We nudged people to employ the cancellation heuristic by partitioning both the smaller earlier reward and the larger later reward into a seemingly identical component and a non-identical component. Given diminishing marginal utility, we hypothesized that people would perceive an identical difference between the smaller earlier reward and the larger later reward as being subjectively greater when both amounts are smaller in magnitude, thereby increasing the relative attractiveness of the larger later reward in the partition condition. We conducted four studies, including two incentive-compatible lab experiments, one incentive-compatible lab-in-the-field experiment, and one survey study using choices among both gains and losses. We consistently found that this choice architecture intervention significantly increased people's likelihood of choosing the larger later reward. Furthermore, we provide evidence of the underlying mechanism-people's intertemporal decisions shifted to a greater extent in the cancellation condition, particularly if their marginal utility diminished faster. The findings indicate that two features of human psychology-diminishing marginal utility and the cancellation heuristic-can be simultaneously utilized to nudge people to make decisions that would be better for them in the long run.

摘要

基于过去在风险决策方面的研究,本研究调查了取消启发式是否在跨期选择中表现明显。具体来说,取消启发式假设,只要选择选项被分为多个组件,人们就会忽略看似相同的组件,只比较不同的组件。我们通过将较小的早期奖励和较大的后期奖励都分为看似相同的组件和不同的组件,来促使人们使用取消启发式。考虑到边际效用递减,我们假设当两个金额都较小时,人们会认为较小的早期奖励和较大的后期奖励之间的相同差异在主观上更大,从而增加了分区条件下较大的后期奖励的相对吸引力。我们进行了四项研究,包括两项激励相容的实验室实验、一项激励相容的实验室现场实验和一项使用收益和损失选择的调查研究。我们一致发现,这种选择结构的干预显著增加了人们选择较大的后期奖励的可能性。此外,我们还提供了潜在机制的证据——在取消条件下,人们的跨期决策发生了更大的转变,特别是如果他们的边际效用下降得更快。这些发现表明,人类心理学的两个特征——边际效用递减和取消启发式——可以同时被利用,促使人们做出从长远来看对他们更有利的决策。

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