严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2传播的决定因素,以指导城市地区的疫苗接种策略。
Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to guide vaccination strategy in an urban area.
作者信息
Brüningk Sarah C, Klatt Juliane, Stange Madlen, Mari Alfredo, Brunner Myrta, Roloff Tim-Christoph, Seth-Smith Helena M B, Schweitzer Michael, Leuzinger Karoline, Søgaard Kirstine K, Albertos Torres Diana, Gensch Alexander, Schlotterbeck Ann-Kathrin, Nickel Christian H, Ritz Nicole, Heininger Ulrich, Bielicki Julia, Rentsch Katharina, Fuchs Simon, Bingisser Roland, Siegemund Martin, Pargger Hans, Ciardo Diana, Dubuis Olivier, Buser Andreas, Tschudin-Sutter Sarah, Battegay Manuel, Schneider-Sliwa Rita, Borgwardt Karsten M, Hirsch Hans H, Egli Adrian
机构信息
Machine Learning & Computational Biology, Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel, Switzerland.
Swiss Institute for Bioinformatics (SIB), Lausanne, Switzerland.
出版信息
Virus Evol. 2022 Mar 17;8(1):veac002. doi: 10.1093/ve/veac002. eCollection 2022.
Transmission chains within small urban areas (accommodating ∼30 per cent of the European population) greatly contribute to case burden and economic impact during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and should be a focus for preventive measures to achieve containment. Here, at very high spatio-temporal resolution, we analysed determinants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in a European urban area, Basel-City (Switzerland). We combined detailed epidemiological, intra-city mobility and socio-economic data sets with whole-genome sequencing during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave. For this, we succeeded in sequencing 44 per cent of all reported cases from Basel-City and performed phylogenetic clustering and compartmental modelling based on the dominating viral variant (B.1-C15324T; 60 per cent of cases) to identify drivers and patterns of transmission. Based on these results we simulated vaccination scenarios and corresponding healthcare system burden (intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy). Transmissions were driven by socio-economically weaker and highly mobile population groups with mostly cryptic transmissions which lacked genetic and identifiable epidemiological links. Amongst more senior population transmission was clustered. Simulated vaccination scenarios assuming 60-90 per cent transmission reduction and 70-90 per cent reduction of severe cases showed that prioritising mobile, socio-economically weaker populations for vaccination would effectively reduce case numbers. However, long-term ICU occupation would also be effectively reduced if senior population groups were prioritised, provided there were no changes in testing and prevention strategies. Reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission through vaccination strongly depends on the efficacy of the deployed vaccine. A combined strategy of protecting risk groups by extensive testing coupled with vaccination of the drivers of transmission (i.e. highly mobile groups) would be most effective at reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within an urban area.
在小型城市区域(容纳约30%的欧洲人口)内的传播链在当前新冠疫情期间对病例负担和经济影响有很大贡献,应成为实现疫情控制的预防措施重点。在此,我们以非常高的时空分辨率分析了欧洲城市巴塞尔市(瑞士)严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)传播的决定因素。在SARS-CoV-2第一波疫情期间,我们将详细的流行病学、城市内部流动和社会经济数据集与全基因组测序相结合。为此,我们成功对巴塞尔市所有报告病例的44%进行了测序,并基于主要病毒变体(B.1-C15324T;占病例的60%)进行了系统发育聚类和分区建模,以确定传播驱动因素和模式。基于这些结果,我们模拟了疫苗接种方案和相应的医疗系统负担(重症监护病房(ICU)占用情况)。传播由社会经济地位较弱且流动性高的人群驱动,大多数传播是隐匿性的,缺乏基因和可识别的流行病学联系。在老年人群中传播呈聚集性。模拟的疫苗接种方案假设传播减少60%-90%,重症病例减少70%-90%,结果表明优先为流动性高、社会经济地位较弱的人群接种疫苗将有效减少病例数。然而,如果优先考虑老年人群体进行疫苗接种,在检测和预防策略不变的情况下,长期ICU占用情况也将有效减少。通过疫苗接种减少SARS-CoV-2传播很大程度上取决于所部署疫苗的效力。通过广泛检测保护风险群体并结合为传播驱动因素(即高流动性群体)接种疫苗的联合策略,在减少城市区域内SARS-CoV-2传播方面将最为有效。