Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
Fujian Climate Center, Fujian Province Meteorology Bureau, Fuzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2022 Mar 24;17(3):e0264980. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264980. eCollection 2022.
Under the context of global warming, compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) will increase and bring serious losses to society and the economy. The projection of CDHEs is of great significance for policy-making and risk assessment. In this paper, two large ensemble simulations, CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, are used to estimate the risk of extreme CDHEs under different warming scenarios in China. First, the biases of the model in the simulation of the temperature and precipitation over the China region are corrected, and the index of CDHEs is established based on a copula function. The results show that extreme CDHEs will occur more often in China with the increase in global warming and the more severe extreme CDHEs are, the greater the risk will be in the future with higher uncertainties. Events that would be attained once every 50 and 100 years in the current climate from CESM-LE (CAanESM2-LE) will be 1.2/1.6 (1.1/1.5) times and 1.3/2.3 (1.5/2.0) times more likely to occur in a 1.5°C/2.0°C warmer climate, respectively. Northwestern China will experience the greatest increase in the risk of extreme CDHEs. Extreme CDHEs expected once every 100 years in the current period over NW China are expected to occur approximately every 5 and 4 years under a 4.0°C warmer world in CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, respectively.
在全球变暖的背景下，复合型干热事件（CDHEs）将增加，并给社会和经济带来严重损失。CDHEs 的预测对政策制定和风险评估具有重要意义。本文使用两个大型集合模拟，CanESM2-LE 和 CESM-LE，来估计中国在不同变暖情景下极端 CDHEs 的风险。首先，对模型在中国地区的温度和降水模拟中的偏差进行修正，并基于 copula 函数建立 CDHEs 指数。结果表明，随着全球变暖的加剧，中国极端 CDHEs 的发生频率将会增加，而且极端 CDHEs 越严重，未来的风险就越大，不确定性也越高。在当前气候下，CESM-LE（CAanESM2-LE）中每 50 年和 100 年发生一次的事件，在 1.5°C/2.0°C 更暖的气候中，发生的可能性将分别增加 1.2/1.6 倍（1.1/1.5 倍）和 1.3/2.3 倍（1.5/2.0 倍）。中国西北地区将经历极端 CDHEs 风险最大的增加。在当前时期，中国西北地区每 100 年发生一次的极端 CDHEs，在 CanESM2-LE 和 CESM-LE 中，在世界升温 4.0°C 的情况下，预计分别约每 5 年和 4 年发生一次。
