Chen J G, Chen J L, Yang Y R, Kou L Y, Zhu K, Zhang Y N, Gao T X, Xia C, Yu C, Shao N, Yang Y Y, Ren X Y
Department of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710004, China.
Department of Clinical Medicine, Xi'an Medical College, Xi'an 710021, China.
Zhonghua Er Bi Yan Hou Tou Jing Wai Ke Za Zhi. 2022 Mar 7;57(3):282-288. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn115330-20210808-00536.
To analyze the correlation between loss of smell/taste and the number of real confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide based on Google Trends data, and to explore the guiding role of smell/taste loss for the COVID-19 prevention and control. "Loss of smell" and "loss of taste" related keywords were searched in the Google Trends platform, the data were obtained from Jan. 1 2019 to Jul. 11 2021. The daily and newly confirmed COVID-19 case number were collected from World Health Organization (WHO) since Dec. 30 2019. All data were statistically analyzed by SPSS 23.0 software. The correlation was finally tested by Spearman correlation analysis. A total of data from 80 weeks were collected. The retrospective analysis was performed on the new trend of COVID-19 confirmed cases in a total of 186 292 441 cases worldwide. Since the epidemic of COVID-19 was recorded on the WHO website, the relative searches related to loss of smell/taste in the Google Trends platform had been increasing globally. The global relative search volumes of "loss of smell" and "loss of taste" on Google Trends was 10.23±2.58 and 16.33±2.47 before the record of epidemic while 80.25±39.81 and 80.45±40.04 after ( value was 8.67, 14.43, respectively, both <0.001). In the United States and India, the relative searches for "loss of smell" and "loss of taste" after the record of epidemic were also much higher than before (all <0.001). The correlation coefficients between the trend of weekly new COVID-19 cases and the Google Trends of "loss of smell" in the global, United States, and India was 0.53, 0.76, and 0.82 respectively (all <0.001), the correlation coefficients with Google Trends of "loss of taste" was 0.54, 0.78, and 0.82 respectively (all <0.001). The lowest and highest point of loss of smell/taste search curves of Google Trends in different periods appeared 7 to 14 days earlier than that of the weekly newly COVID-19 confirmed cases curves, respectively. There is a significant positive correlation between the number of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide and the amount of keywords, such as "loss of smell" and "loss of taste", retrieved in Google Trends. The trend of big data based on Google Trends might predict the outbreak trend of COVID-19 in advance.
基于谷歌趋势数据，分析全球范围内嗅觉/味觉丧失与新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）实际确诊病例数之间的相关性，并探讨嗅觉/味觉丧失对COVID-19防控的指导作用。在谷歌趋势平台上搜索“嗅觉丧失”和“味觉丧失”相关关键词，数据获取时间为2019年1月1日至2021年7月11日。自2019年12月30日起，从世界卫生组织（WHO）收集每日新增和累计确诊的COVID-19病例数。所有数据均采用SPSS 23.0软件进行统计分析。最终通过Spearman相关性分析检验相关性。共收集了80周的数据。对全球186292441例COVID-19确诊病例的新趋势进行回顾性分析。自COVID-19疫情在世卫组织网站上记录以来，谷歌趋势平台上与嗅觉/味觉丧失相关的相对搜索量在全球范围内呈上升趋势。谷歌趋势上“嗅觉丧失”和“味觉丧失”的全球相对搜索量在疫情记录前分别为10.23±2.58和16.33±2.47，记录后分别为80.25±39.81和80.45±40.04（Z值分别为8.67、14.43，均<0.001）。在美国和印度，疫情记录后“嗅觉丧失”和“味觉丧失”的相对搜索量也远高于记录前（均<0.001）。全球、美国和印度每周新增COVID-19病例趋势与谷歌趋势上“嗅觉丧失”的相关系数分别为0.53、0.76和0.82（均<0.001），与谷歌趋势上“味觉丧失”的相关系数分别为0.54、0.78和0.82（均<0.001）。谷歌趋势不同时期嗅觉/味觉丧失搜索曲线的最低点和最高点分别比每周新增COVID-19确诊病例曲线提前7至14天出现。全球范围内COVID-19新增确诊病例数与谷歌趋势中检索到的“嗅觉丧失”和“味觉丧失”等关键词数量之间存在显著正相关。基于谷歌趋势的大数据趋势可能提前预测COVID-19的爆发趋势。
