[Mortality, cardiovascular risk, and health status in a male cohort initiated in 1968. The Manresa study].

OBJECTIVES

To analyse mortality and its causes in the Manresa male cohort followed over 42 years; to compare the initial risk of cardiovascular mortality with actual mortality; and to describe the health status of the participants at the end of the study.

METHODS

Prospective observational study, in which an analysis of the cumulative incidence of mortality was performed. The association of cardiovascular risk factors with mortality was calculated with a logistic regression analysis of mixed effect. The risk of mortality of individuals was evaluated and compared with true cardiovascular mortality using ROC curves. At the end of the study, a descriptive analysis of CVRF and health status of participants in the last survey was performed.

RESULTS

The number of deaths was 457 (43%). Cumulative incidence for cardiovascular diseases was 10.6%. Cardiovascular risk factors significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality were age, cholesterol, and smoking. The use of risk score charts for cardiovascular mortality was found to be useful, and there were no differences between tables. In the last health screening of cardiovascular risk factors levels in an elderly population, a high prevalence was found of hypertension and of regular physical activity, together with a low prevalence of smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular mortality remained high, although it has become the second cause after tumoural diseases. The comparison of predictions from cardiovascular mortality risk tables with actual mortality rates in our area over more than 4 decades demonstrated the importance of assessing cardiovascular risk in the adult population.