Baum Klaus
Institut für Trainingswissenschaft und Sportinformatik, Deutsche Sporthochschule Köln.
Dtsch Med Wochenschr. 2022 Apr;147(7):430-434. doi: 10.1055/a-1715-7711. Epub 2022 Mar 28.
At the end of 2020, in Germany a discussion broke out whether the past year was characterized by excess mortality. The opposite positions arose primarily from the way data was processed. In order to correct systematic trends of the last two decades, in the present study the annual death rates for Germany were calculated as the difference to those of the year 2000 and a polynomial fit of 2 order was carried out for the total population and for the groups of people below and from 80 years of age. There were high coefficients of determination with R2 = 0.965, R2 = 0.982, and R2 = 0.991, respectively. The residuals of the individual years were interpreted as under or excess mortality. For the total population there were excess mortality rates for 2020 and 2021 with 11 500 and 10 468 deaths respectively, which in which in total is completely covered by the excess mortality of those aged 80 and over. In the age group below 80 years there was no excess mortality in the two years. For all age groups, excess mortality was most prominent in the year 2003.
2020年底，德国爆发了一场关于过去一年是否存在超额死亡率的讨论。两种相反观点主要源于数据处理方式的不同。为了校正过去二十年的系统趋势，在本研究中，德国的年死亡率计算为与2000年死亡率的差值，并对总人口以及80岁及以下和80岁及以上人群进行了二阶多项式拟合。判定系数分别很高，R2 = 0.965、R2 = 0.982和R2 = 0.991。各年份的残差被解释为低于或高于正常死亡率。对于总人口，2020年和2021年存在超额死亡率，分别有11500例和10468例死亡，而这完全被80岁及以上人群的超额死亡率所覆盖。在80岁以下年龄组，这两年没有超额死亡率。对于所有年龄组，2003年的超额死亡率最为显著。
