Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, Germany; School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Boston University, Boston, United States.
Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, Germany.
J Infect. 2020 Nov;81(5):797-801. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.09.012. Epub 2020 Sep 19.
The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time.
We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016-2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals.
During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60-69, 80-89, and 90+. The age group 70-79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10-23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03-1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80-89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98-0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10-23, 2020.
The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.
2020 年，德国 SARS-CoV-2 大流行的第一波持续了第 10 周至第 23 周。本研究旨在估算这段时间德国的超额死亡率。
我们分析了 2016 年至 2020 年第 26 周每周特定年龄的死亡人数。我们使用 2016-2019 年每周平均死亡人数来估算 2020 年每周的预期死亡人数。我们估算了标准化死亡率（SMR）和 95%置信区间。
在观察到的第一波中，60-69 岁、80-89 岁和 90+岁组的死亡人数高于预期。70-79 岁年龄组未显示出超额死亡率。第 10-23 周的净超额死亡人数为+8071。总 SMR 为 1.03（95%CI 1.03-1.04）。80-89 岁和 90+岁人群的增幅最大（SMR=1.08 和 SMR=1.09）。考虑人口变化的敏感性分析显示，总 SMR 为 0.98（95%CI 0.98-0.99），2020 年第 10-23 周的死亡人数减少了 4926。
超额死亡率持续了两个月。大流行初期感染人群年龄较轻、接触率较低以及更有效的大流行管理可能是第一波疫情较为有利的原因。
