Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Mass. Ave., Rm 54-1814, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
Nat Commun. 2021 Dec 2;12(1):7027. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27364-8.
Historical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a tropical cyclone downscaling model driven by three global climate analyses that are based mostly on sea surface temperature and surface pressure data. The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19 century, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change. Most metrics of tropical cyclones downscaled over all the tropics show weak and/or insignificant trends over the last century, illustrating the special nature of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology.
历史上对大西洋飓风活动的记录可以追溯到 1851 年，记录显示随着时间的推移活动日益频繁，但这种趋势的大部分或全部都归因于记录早期观测不足。在这里，我们使用了一种热带气旋细化模型，该模型由三个主要基于海表温度和表面压力数据的全球气候分析驱动。结果支持了早期基于统计的推断，即在 19 世纪风暴被低估了，但与早期的工作不同，该结果显示出该时期热带气旋活动的增加，其中 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代出现了明显的飓风干旱，我们认为这是人为气溶胶的影响。与早期的工作一致，我们表明，在上个世纪，北大西洋热带气旋活动的大部分变化直接与区域而非全球气候变化有关。过去一个世纪在所有热带地区进行细化的热带气旋的大多数指标显示出微弱和/或不显著的趋势，这说明了北大西洋热带气旋气候学的特殊性。
