Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Apr 5;119(14):e2113628119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2113628119. Epub 2022 Mar 29.
SignificanceThe clear need to mitigate zoonotic risk has fueled increased viral discovery in specific reservoir host taxa. We show that a combination of viral and reservoir traits can predict zoonotic virus virulence and transmissibility in humans, supporting the hypothesis that bats harbor exceptionally virulent zoonoses. However, pandemic prevention requires thinking beyond zoonotic capacity, virulence, and transmissibility to consider collective "burden" on human health. For this, viral discovery targeting specific reservoirs may be inefficient as death burden correlates with viral, not reservoir, traits, and depends on context-specific epidemiological dynamics across and beyond the human-animal interface. These findings suggest that longitudinal studies of viral dynamics in reservoir and spillover host populations may offer the most effective strategy for mitigating zoonotic risk.
意义
减轻人畜共患病风险的明确需求推动了在特定宿主分类群中发现更多病毒。我们表明,病毒和宿主特征的结合可以预测人类中人畜共患病病毒的毒力和传染性,支持了蝙蝠携带异常致命人畜共患病的假设。然而,预防大流行需要超越人畜共患病的能力、毒力和传染性来考虑对人类健康的集体“负担”。为此,针对特定宿主的病毒发现可能效率低下,因为死亡负担与病毒而不是宿主特征相关,并且取决于人类-动物界面内外特定的流行病学动态。这些发现表明,对宿主和溢出宿主种群中病毒动态的纵向研究可能是减轻人畜共患病风险的最有效策略。